Canary In The Inflation Mine? Used Car Prices Drop - Will It Show Up In CPI Figures?

The U.S. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the September consumer price index data on Oct. 13.

Why It Matters: Consumer uncertainty surrounding inflation expectations has remained elevated, as global pressures continue to mount.

In the August CPI reading, used vehicle inflation decreased by 0.1%, accounting for a 7.8% unadjusted reading in the consumer price index for used cars and trucks.

Unfortunately, new vehicle inflation continued to soar, increasing 0.8% in August, accounting for an increase in new vehicle inflation of 10.1% over the past twelve months.

Also Read: Not Even The Post Office Is Immune To Inflation. Get The Forever Stamp Before It's Too Late.

What Happened: The Manheim Index is becoming a leading indicator for both financial and economic analysts when monitoring pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be predictive of any individual reseller's results.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is now down 0.1% from a year ago, as wholesale used vehicle prices decreased by 3% seasonally adjusted in September from August.

In September, the average daily sales conversion rate decreased slightly to 49.2%, which was below normal, as the sales conversion rate averaged 52.1% in September 2019, as reported by Manheim. The lower conversion rate indicates that September saw buyers with more bargaining power for this time of year.

Among Manheim’s selective market classes, compact cars saw the highest seasonally adjusted price increases of 5.9% year-over-year, while vans and pickups increased by 0.8% year-over-year. While the remaining five major market segments, which include luxury, midsize, SUV, CUV, and sports cars, saw seasonally adjusted price decreases between 3.1% and 5.2%.

Additionally, Manheim has forecasted used retail sales to decline by 8% in September from August, causing used retail sales to fall by 10% year-over-year, which was calculated by leveraging a same-store set of dealerships selected to represent the country from Dealertrack.

The Last Word: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 4.2% in September, as the sentiment index from the University of Michigan incrementally increased in September.