This Is How Much OPEC Expects Global Oil Demand To Rise By 2045

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said in its 2022 World Oil Outlook that global oil demand is projected to increase from almost 97 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2021 to around 110 mb/d in 2045.

The world economy is expected to more than double in size, and the global population rise by 1.6 billion between now and 2045, it said.

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The outlook also highlighted that primary energy demand is forecast to continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by 23% in the period to 2045. The world needs to annually add on average 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent a day to 2045, it added.

Oil prices rose over 1% on Tuesday as a weak dollar balanced the impact of increasing COVID-19 curbs in China. The United States Brent Oil Fund BNO closed 1.57% down on Monday while the Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF VDE closed 0.88% higher.

Oil’s Share: Oil is expected to retain the largest share in the energy mix throughout the outlook period, accounting for almost a 29% share in 2045. Other renewables — mainly solar, wind and geothermal energy – will expand by 7.1% per annum on average, significantly faster than any other source of energy.

The outlook projected that the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to remain the most important crude oil importing region throughout the forecast period, with imports rising by over 7.5 mb/d. India is set to be the largest contributor to incremental demand, adding around 6.3 mb/d to 2045, it said.

Energy Poverty: The report noted that all forms of energy will be needed to address future energy needs. “Energy poverty remains an issue throughout the forecast period, with a wide gap remaining between developed and developing countries,” it said.

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