Salesforce's Downsizing Does Not Shock Analysts, See Attractive Margin Expansion From The Move

  • Needham analyst Scott Berg maintained Hold on Salesforce, Inc CRM.
  • Salesforce announced a ~10% RIF, or 8,000 employees, to control spending in a more challenging macro environment.
  • While Berg believes this cost reduction is a step (albeit a one-time step function) in the right direction for Salesforce to expand future margins. 
  • The analyst believes these reductions could have an immediate 200bps impact on the FY24 operating margin.
  • Berg raised FY24 EPS estimate by reducing the FY24 revenue forecast as the update reflected challenging current and near-term sales.
  • Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated a Buy with a $200 price target.
  • While the update does not surprise Moskowitz, these actions better align CRM's cost structure with its growth profile and, in the analyst's view, clearly place CRM on a firmer path to reach its non-GAAP operating margin target of 25%+ by FY26. 
  • The analyst commended management's commitment to disciplined, profitable growth. 
  • At the same time, the analyst believes the news also supports the view that Street revenue estimates for 11% growth in FY24 are likely too high. 
  • RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria maintained an Outperform with a $200 price target.
  • The update was unsurprising to Jaluria, given the company's aggressive hiring over the past couple of years which likely led to bloat. 
  • On the one hand, the analyst worried a RIF of this scale could indicate single-digit growth in FY24 and that the FY26 revenue target of $50 billion is likely off the table. 
  • On the other hand, this should enable Salesforce to achieve 25%+ operating margins well ahead of schedule. 
  • Price Action: CRM shares traded lower by 2.88% at $135.48 on the last check Thursday.
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