Bill Gates Says Self-Driving Cars Will Change Transportation Like PCs Transformed Work: 'Close To Tipping Point'

Autonomous vehicles (AV) will change transportation like the way personal computers changed office work, Bill Gates wrote in his blog.

But when?

Gates wrote that he believes autonomous vehicles will reach a tipping point within the next decade. “Right now, we're close to the tipping point—between levels 2 and 3—when cars are becoming available that allow the driver to take their hands off the wheel and let the system drive in certain circumstances,” wrote Gates, referring to the Society of American Engineers’ classification system for autonomous driving.

Who first?

Gates expects long-haul trucking and deliveries to be the first to jump onto widespread autonomous adoption and passenger cars to be the last.

“When you finally do step into an AV, it will likely be a taxi or a rental car,” Gates said, noting that rental car companies are eager to transition to avoid cash burn through driver-caused accidents.

Once autonomous driving becomes successful, what next?

Gates says car insurance will need to have a revamp because it needs to ascertain who will be responsible for an AV accident. Roads might have “autonomous vehicles only” lanes or “human drivers only” lanes once AVs become normalized, says Gates. However, that type of shift is likely decades away, if it happens at all, Gates noted.

Gates thinks that the benefits of AVs will eventually convince uncomfortable drivers. AVs will conserve time and create more equity for the elderly and disabled and help avoid a climate disaster as they are also mostly EVs, Bill Gates wrote.

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