Playing the Dating Game: Match Group and Bumble Adapt for Growth, Analyst Adjusts Price Targets

Keybanc analyst Justin Patterson maintains Match Group Inc MTCH with an Overweight, lowering the price target from $75 to $60.
Patterson reiterates Bumble Inc BMBL with an Overweight, lowering the price target from $28 to $25.
The analyst sees potential for Match and Bumble to have better-than-feared prints.
Match's 2023 outlook considered Tinder to be driven more by monetization optimizations than net adds, which is how the year is progressing thus far.
The analyst lowered his revenue estimates by 2% and adjusted the operating income outlook by 6% to account for softer net adds, pricing gradually flowing through the model, and legacy brands facing some headwinds from reduced marketing spend and macro sensitivity. He believes investors largely expect a softer guide.
Match's price target cut reflects the lower AOI forecast.
Tinder launched its first global brand campaign and expected benefits to build into 2H23.
For Bumble, the analyst assumes international is the primary driver of net adds, and there are still monetization levers in 2H23 to support 2023's +16%-19% Y/Y revenue growth target.
The analyst sees Bumble's 1Q and 2Q aligned with his revenue and EBITDA estimates.
The 2023 estimates are primarily unchanged to reflect more robust Bumble growth.
Price Actions: MTCH shares traded lower by 2.22% at $36.08 on the last check Monday. BMBL shares traded lower by 2.94% at $17.68.
Photo by Solen Feyissa from Pixabay

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