Airbnb's Highs and Lows: Analysts Stay Grounded, Await More Material Pullback

Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler maintained a Market Perform on Airbnb Inc ABNB. Airbnb reported solid 1Q results as consumer demand remained strong. 

ABNB guided to slowing 2Q23 revenues due to the lapping of tough comps from pent-up omicron demand and anticipation of slightly lower ADRs. 

The analyst remains positive on ABNB fundamentals given TAM's increasingly shifting to alternative accommodations, leadership position, and strong brand driving significant organic traffic, ~15% long-term revenue growth, and 35% plus long-term EBITDA margins. 

DA Davidson analyst Tom White maintains Airbnb with a Buy and lowers the price target from $145 to $140. With a premium multiple comes elevated expectations. ABNB put up a solid quarter with some upside vs. consensus on GBV, revenues, and adjusted EBITDA, but it wasn't a blowout. 

The midpoint of the 2Q revenue guide was just below consensus, as ABNB comps the pent-up demand period right after the Omicron variant in early FY22, and Average daily rates (ADRs) look to decline Y/Y modestly due to mix and the introduction of ABNB's new Host pricing tools.

RBC Capital analyst Brad Erickson maintains Airbnb with a Sector Perform, lowering the price target from $135 to $105. ABNB beat Q1 slightly but guided nights well below Street for Q2, with likely more substantial marginal ADR pressure to come. 

His previously stated views of Europe pull forward risk are proving out, and while the company believes it is supply constrained, it will have to compel hosts to cut prices to improve demand. 

It's still a terrific business. However, given the stock's elevated multiple and a more detailed view toward structurally lower room night growth, he awaits a more significant pullback before getting more constructive.

JMP analyst Nicholas Jones maintained a Market Perform rating on Airbnb. Airbnb reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA ahead of consensus. Bottom-line 2Q23 guidance came in lighter than expected, with a shift in the timing of marketing spend weighing on EBITDA. 

ADRs will likely face headwinds from mix-shift and new pricing tools for hosts, while nights and experiences booked also face pressure from tough Y/Y comps.

Though He seeS ABNB as a dominant player, proliferating a category within travel, He believes its share price reflects its market position and accounts for risk to top-line trends.

Price Action: ABNB shares traded lower by 10.3% at $114.04 on the last check Wednesday.

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