Riding the Cross-Border Commerce Wave: Analysts Bullish on Global E Online's Long-Term Potential

Needham analyst Scott Berg reiterates Global E Online Ltd GLBE with a Buy and maintains a $44 price target.

Global-e reported better than expected 1Q as consumer spending trends outperformed its more conservative estimate in the current macro. 

Berg views GMV growth of 54% Y/Y as a strong indication of GLBE's value proposition's success, with new customers and expansions driving near-term revenue visibility. 

While consumer spending and net new customer remain well above market expectations, the analyst is more impressed with GLBE's ability to drive 800bps of adjusted EBITDA leverage Y/Y to 12.3% while growing revenues at a greater than 50% rate. 

Macro consumer spending behavior continues to cloud Global-e's near-term investor outlook. Still, he views strong cross-border sales outlooks, and the soon-to-be-released Shopify Inc SHOP SHOP Markets Pro can continue to drive high revenue growth rates over the intermediate term.

Raymond James analyst Brian Peterson maintains Global E Online with an Outperform, raising the price target from $35 to $40.

The re-rating followed the 1Q23 results that exceeded Peterson's expectations and showed encouraging GMV trends (+55%) through the first quarter. 

The ongoing customer expansion activity (including both Walt Disney Co DIS Europe and LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton) encouraged the analyst. At the same time, catalysts from the Shopify partnership and BorderFree synergies should ramp up as it heads into 2024. 

While shares are up an impressive 68% YTD, he still believes GLBE represents one of the most compelling growth stories in his coverage universe.

JMP Securities analyst Patrick Walravens reiterates Global E Online with a Market Outperform and maintains a $46 price target.

Walravens continue to view Global-e as an excellent opportunity for long-term capital appreciation from a strong demand tailwind as more and more merchants put cross-border commerce opportunities into their plans.

The company is addressing a large TAM, estimated at ~$125 billion, Shopify's launch of Markets Pro this summer and the leadership team, including CEO Amir Schlachet, who co-founded the business in 2013, President Nir Debbi, another co-founder, and CFO Ofer Koren.

Price Action: GLBE shares are trading lower by 6.90% at $32.53 on the last check Tuesday.