Why JPMorgan Strategists Believe 'Some Signs Of De-Dollarization' Are Emerging

Although the greenback should maintain its long-term dominance in the foreseeable future, the global economy is seeing signs of de-dollarization, strategists at JPMorgan said according to a report.

Meera Chandan and Octavia Popescu, strategists at JPMorgan, said while overall dollar usage is within its historical range and the currency remains at the top of the pack, a closer look gives a more bifurcated picture, according to a Reuters report.

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“Some signs of de-dollarization are emerging,” the analysts said, adding the trend was likely to persist even as the greenback maintains its “large footprint.”

Dollar's Share: While the dollar's share of forex trading volumes remains near record highs at 88% and its use in trade invoicing has not changed much over the last few decades, other areas have seen an erosion, the report said,

For instance, the dollar's share in the forex reserves held by central banks has tumbled to a record low of 58%. Although it is the largest share of any global currency, it declines further when accounting for gold which comprises 15% of reserves against 11% five years ago, the report said.

China’s yuan now accounts for a record, albeit small, 7% of forex trading volume while the euro’s share has fallen eight percentage points over the last decade of ultra-low interest rates to 31%. The “CNY” is 2.3% of SWIFT payments, JPMorgan’s analysts pointed out, as compared to 43% for the greenback and 32% for the euro.

However, many experts have been countering the whole idea of de-dollarization. For instance, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers had earlier said that China is not positioned to provide an alternative reserve currency right now.

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