Former US Intel Officer Predicts Kim Jong Un Most Likely To Use Nuclear Weapons: 'If North Korea Feels That China Has Turned Against It'

Former U.S. spy Markus Garlauskas has voiced fears that Kim Jong Un is most likely to resort to nuclear weapon use if it feels that China has turned against North Korea.

What Happened: Garlauskas, the current director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, in a conversation with Nikkei Asia, underlined that the world has historically downplayed North Korea’s threat. 

“We have, historically, dramatically underestimated the threat from North Korea. The danger is, particularly, underestimating its risk calculus, its willingness to provoke, its willingness to engage in limited acts of aggression.”

He also referenced the country’s growing confidence in its capabilities, backed by China and Russia, as a factor causing a shift in Pyongyang’s risk calculus, making them more inclined to escalate a conflict.

See Also: ‘Get Ready For Us’: Angry Wagner Group Now Reportedly Marching Toward Russia To Avenge Leader Prigozhin’s

The ex-national Intelligence Officer for North Korea, who was responsible for the strategic analysis of the nation between 2014 and 2020, voiced that Pyongyang’s potential perception of being abandoned by China could lead to the deployment of nuclear weapons. “If North Korea feels that China has turned against it or abandoned it, whether or not it’s actually true, that could be the kind of factor that drives Pyongyang to use a nuclear weapon.”

Why It Matters: In June, a U.S. intelligence report revealed the likelihood of Kim using nuclear weapons as a means of coercion to gain political leverage over South Korea and its allies. This was followed by a lack of interest in nuclear talks on the part of North Korea, despite repeated efforts from the U.S. By August, Kim had warned of a possible ‘thermonuclear war’ against the U.S. and South Korea, criticizing their joint military exercise and threatening retaliation.

Garlauskas’ warnings underscore the importance of focusing on deterrence during a conflict rather than solely on prevention.

Photo by Alexander Khitrov on Shutterstock

Read Next: Trump’s Niece Calls Ex-President’s Mugshot ‘Smallest Of Victories’ That Brought Out His ‘Humiliation’