Tesla's Q3 Delivery Numbers Could Challenge Wall Street Projections: 'Factory Shutdowns To Drive Material Miss,' Says Analyst

In an upcoming announcement, Tesla Inc. TSLA is set to report its third-quarter deliveries, raising questions on whether Wall Street estimates may not decrease rapidly or significantly enough in anticipation, Barron’s reported.

Analysts’ forecasts usually dip in the weeks preceding the quarter’s end. Initially, Wall Street anticipated 473,000 units for Tesla’s Q3; however, the consensus among FactSet-tracked analysts has dropped to 461,000 units, a 2.5% decrease.

Contrary to this consensus, New Street Research analyst Pierre Feragu forecasts 438,000 units, a 5% decline from the current consensus. Feragu cited "Factory shutdowns to drive material miss."

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The forecasted 438,000 units signify a 6% fall from Q2’s 466,000 units but a 27% rise from Q3 2022’s 344,000 units. The reduced Q3 production is attributed to planned factory downtime for equipment updates and the introduction of an updated Model 3 in China and Europe, replacing older sedan models.

Despite the anticipated shortfall, Feragu remains confident, stating, “We believe the miss is well anticipated by both the buy side and retail influencers.”

Tesla shares closed 0.86% higher on Monday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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