MacBook Sales Slump - Apple Faces 30% Decline Amid Post-Pandemic Demand Drop, Analyst Says

Apple Inc AAPL analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects MacBook shipments to decline by approximately 30% Y/Y to about 17 million units in 2023.

The analyst highlights that demand for the new 15-inch MacBook Air dropped significantly after the pandemic recovery and back-to-school (BTS) period, with shipment forecasts revised downward by about 20% or more in 2023. 

Current challenges for the MacBook include declining remote work demand and the potential waning consumer appeal of Apple’s silicon and mini-LED.

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Kuo suggests that Apple must clear inventory and reformulate new product and marketing strategies for 2024 due to the lack of new products in 4Q23.

Though Apple expects the M3 processor to boost MacBook shipments in 2024, the analyst maintains her reservations over its fruition.

The significantly higher ASP of assembly and critical components for the MacBook versus general Microsoft Corp MSFT Windows notebooks (by more than three times) substantially impacts the revenues and profits of key MacBook suppliers.

Kuo concludes that when AI stocks desperately need solid revenues and earnings to boost current trading sentiment, those that are also key MacBook suppliers may need monitoring to see if recent AI server revenues can offset the significant decline in MacBook sales.

Price Action: AAPL shares traded lower by 0.35% at $176.53 on the last check Wednesday.