Donald Trump will likely win back four swing states he ceded to his successor Joe Biden in the 2020 elections, according to the results of a new poll.
Swings Toward Trump: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which Trump won in 2016 before they flipped to Biden in 2020, will likely be pocketed by the former president if the polls were held today, according to a poll by Stack Data Strategy. The poll outcome from these states prevented Trump from heading to the White House in 2020, the report said.
The results were based on a survey of 15,000 respondents from across the U.S. done between October 12 and November 3.
The survey results showed that there have been significant swings toward Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania, with the former president leading by 3.3% in the former and by 2.3% in the latter.
Notwithstanding Trump’s lead, voter sentiment in the battleground states remains extremely tight. If the elections were held today, Trump would likely win Arizona by a margin of 1.7% and Wisconsin by 0.9%.
“This far out from the election, these are very small differences within a margin of error, and it is far from impossible that the Democrats will be able to close the gap by November 5th,” Stack Data Strategy said.
Trump, Biden Bets For Their Parties: Trump and Biden are the most likely candidates for their respective parties, the poll found. While testing if candidates other than Trump or Biden would fare better for their respective parties, the firm’s analysis showed that Trump would beat California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris.
If Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were to be the GOP nominee, Biden would beat him by a score of 359 electoral college votes to 179, it said.
Electoral College Vs. Popular Vote: Trump is on track to beat Biden in the electoral college by 292 votes to 246, if presidential elections were held now, the poll found. However, Biden will likely win the popular vote by 49% to 48%.
Popular vote refers to an aggregate of all voters from all states in America. On the other hand, Electoral College vote refers to the votes of the 538 electors, who are chosen by each state of the U.S. and the District of Columbia. The number of electors for a state is based on the voting membership of that state. A presidential candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the general election.
In the past, candidates who won the popular vote have lost as they trailed in the electoral college. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 48.2% to 46.1% in 2016 but she lost the electoral vote by a margin of 304 to 227.
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