New Poll Shows Trump Leading In New Hampshire GOP Primary, But One Candidate Saw 14-Point Surge In Support And Came On Top Vs. Biden

Donald Trump may be leading in the Republican presidential primary, but another candidate appears to be slowly and steadily gaining ground.

What Happened: Trump led the rest of the Republican primary candidates in New Hampshire, the results of a new Emerson College Polling/WHDH poll published on Wednesday showed. The former president received the support of 49% of New Hampshire voters, a status quo position with August but lower than the 58% support he had in March.

The survey was conducted on November 10-13, 2023, with responses from 917 registered voters.

Meanwhile, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley was the biggest gainer and the only candidate other than Trump to reach double digits. Haley won 18% of the support, a big leap from the 4% support she had in August. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie took the third spot with 9% support, consistent with the level in August.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy garnered 7% and 5% support, respectively.

See Also: Nikki Haley Proposes Verification Of Social Media Profiles Amidst Claims Of National Security Threat

“Nikki Haley's support is driven by older voters, and those with postgraduate degrees,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “While Trump leads across all age groups, Haley gets 21% of the vote from voters over 40 while getting about 8% from voters under 40,” he added.

In a 2024 hypothetical presidential match-up between President Joe Biden and Trump, the poll found that Biden led 47% to 42%, while 12% were undecided. When Trump voters were asked if they would still vote for Trump if he were convicted in a criminal trial, 80% said they would still support him, 5% said they wouldn’t, and 15% were unsure. 

Between Biden and Haley, the latter led 45% to 39%, with 17% undecided. Between Biden and DeSantis, Biden led 46% to 38%, with 17% undecided. 

Why It’s Important: The election results of New Hampshire are important because it is the first in a series of nationwide primary elections and the second party contest after the Iowa caucuses. On Wednesday, New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan announced that the state would hold its 2024 presidential primary on January 23 following the Iowa caucus on Jan. 15.

Biden’s reelection campaign informed New Hampshire Democrats in late October that Biden would not be filing to appear on the state’s primary ballot.

Meanwhile, Haley is making a splash, especially after the second and the third Republican presidential debates. Wall Street’s biggest donors have gravitated toward her, holding her aloft as an alternative to Trump.

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