Black Friday Foot Traffic Reveals Potential 2023 Holiday Shopping Retail Winners: 17 Stock Ideas

With U.S. stock markets closed on Thanksgiving Day and closing early on Black Friday, investors look to this week as one to digest the potential winners of the holiday shopping season and key Black Friday and Cyber Monday deal days.

Data showed shoppers were out in full force for Black Friday 2023, potentially benefitting several retail stocks going forward.

What Happened: E-commerce sales were expected to increase in 2023 as more shoppers head online to make the majority of their holiday shopping selections.

Despite the trend of online shopping, data from Placer.ai showed physical traffic was also strong for the Black Friday shopping day with traffic reports for many leading retailers.

Here's a look at the data.

Data from Placer.ai showed that visits to indoor malls were up 300% on Black Friday compared to the first three weeks of November and up 294% compared to the daily average in the first three quarters.

Here's a look at the increased visits to other specific types of stores.

Discount and Dollar Stores: +29.3% to first three weeks of November, +44.4% to daily average first three quarters

Superstores: +78.8% to first three weeks of November, +91.4% to daily average first three quarters

Department Stores: +297.4% to first three weeks of November, +337.7% to daily average first three quarters

Apparel Stores: +186.1% to first three weeks of November, +200.6% to daily average first three quarters

Recreation and Sporting Goods: +353.9% to first three weeks of November, +315.7% to daily average first three quarters

"Comparing Black Friday visits to the daily average visits for all days prior showed a massive jump for Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers and Outlet Malls," Placer.ai Senior Vice President Marketing Ethan Chernofsky said.

"This behavior deepens the thought that Black Friday remains the most significant retail day for most retail categories and retailers, but also that the value orientation of the day was even more of a draw considering the wider economic context that has dominated headlines in recent months."

Related Link: Black Friday Preview: Consumers Will Likely Show Up, 14 Retail, Technology Stock Picks

The Potential Winners: Data from Placer.ai highlighted traffic patterns among individual companies within the sectors covered above.

Here's a look at the performance of several top-performing publicly traded companies and how traffic for Black Friday compared to the first three weeks of November and to the daily average of the first three quarters.

Costco Wholesale Corporation COST: +18.5%, +39.0%

Walmart Inc WMT: +74.0%, +81.6%

Sam's Club, owned by Walmart: +19.0%, +33.9%

Target Corporation TGT: +147.2%, +158.3%

Home Depot HD: +104.6%, +103.9%

Lowe's Companies Inc LOW: +114.0%, +91.3%

Nordstrom Inc JWN: +289.6%, +298.6%

Macy's Inc M: +427.3%, +461.7%

Kohl's Corp KSS: +337.9%, +425.3%

T.J. Maxx, a unit of TJX Companies TJX: +123.2%, +152.1%

Burlington BURL: +103.9%, +137.0%

Dollar General DG: +10.2%, +17.2%

Dollar Tree DLTR: +11.7%, +29.4%

Family Dollar, owned by Dollar Tree: +4.8%, +6.3%

Five Below FIVE: +168.9%, +246.4%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings OLLI: +193.8%, +276.2%

Best Buy Co Inc BBY: +596.8%, +700.5%

Dick's Sporting Goods DKS: +412.6%, +314.6%

Ulta Beauty ULTA: +341.5%, +358.8%

Among the large retailers, Walmart and Target saw nice increases in traffic compared to the first three weeks of November and their daily averages for the first three quarters. This could make the two companies potential strong plays for the 2023 holiday shopping season.

Department stores such as Macy's, Kohl's and Nordstrom saw triple-digit increases in percent of foot traffic increases, which could signal strength.

Among discount stores, Five Below and Ollie's Bargain Outlet appear to have had the best performance for Black Friday based on the data.

Specialty retailers Best Buy, Dick's Sporting Goods and Ulta Beauty also saw strong traffic and could be among the stocks to watch for the 2023 holiday shopping season.

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