Yet another opinion poll has confirmed that Donald Trump is way ahead of his rivals in the Republican primary race for the 2024 election. Although the former president is seen to have an edge over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical two-way matchup, one finding may set off worries in his camp.
Fragile Lead: Trump led Biden by merely two points in a hypothetical matchup, with 38% of the surveyed voters favoring the former compared to the 36% who sided with the latter, the results of a new Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.
The poll was conducted online from Dec. 5-11 and 4,411 U.S. adults from across the country were surveyed for the purpose.
A whopping 26% of respondents said they weren’t sure or might vote for someone else. This confounds the picture and suggests it may not be smooth sailing for Trump, especially with the host of legal cases he is left to contend with.
With the state-by-state electoral college system that is in place to elect the president and the partisan divides, it appears that a few states will have a decisive role in the outcome, the report said. In the seven swing states where the election results were closest in 2020, namely Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Michigan, Biden took a seven-point lead among respondents who said they were sure to vote.
If Trump were to be convicted for any of his indictments, his poll prospects could face a setback. About 31% of the respondents said they would not vote for him if he were to be convicted of a felony crime by a jury.
Independents Upsetting Equation? Although the poll results show that a rematch between Trump and Biden is in the cards, about six in 10 respondents favored having a third-party choice.
When Robert Kennedy Jr., who announced his candidacy as a Democrat and then switched over to making an independent bid, was included in the ballot, Trump’s lead over Biden widened to five points. Kennedy received the backing of 16% of the respondents, with Trump and Biden favored by 36% and 31% of the respondents, respectively.
That said, Biden could score points due to the public’s support of abortion rights which the Democratic party strongly backs, and his accent on gun control, climate-change initiatives, and taxing the ultra-rich, the poll found.
GOP Primary Done Deal For Trump: In the Republican primary, Trump has a commanding lead of 61% among 1,689 self-identified Republican voters who were surveyed. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley were tied for the second position with 11% support each. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie were backed by 5% and 2% of the Republic voters, respectively.
The overwhelming support for Trump suggests Republicans weren’t too worried about the slew of state and federal criminal charges faced by the former president.
The 2024 U.S. elections will kick off with the Iowa Republican caucus on Jan. 15.
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