Analysts Predict Increased Semiconductor Export Restrictions For China From US And Netherlands In 2024

Analysts predict that China might face further restrictions on semiconductor exports from the U.S. and the Netherlands, among others, in a move to curb China’s chip technology dominance.

What Happened: As reported by CNBC on Wednesday, the U.S. has been tightening its export controls on advanced semiconductors and chipmaking tools to China. The U.S. fears that China could use these advanced chips for military and artificial intelligence applications. Analysts believe that the U.S. is likely to continue the trend.

In October, the U.S. banned the sale of the A800 and H800 chips, which Nvidia specifically produced for the Chinese market. This led Nvidia to launch less powerful chips in China to comply with U.S. export restrictions.

In January, the Netherlands blocked the export of some of its deep ultraviolet lithography systems to China by Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML. These systems are crucial for manufacturing advanced chips.

Dan Hutcheson, vice chair and senior research fellow at TechInsights, said, “I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more [U.S. restrictions] coming just because we’re still in the middle of this tit-for-tat. And there’s a lot of hawks in the U.S. that are really concerned about China’s military buildup.”

"With [U.S.] elections impending and political tension continuing to exist in the Taiwan Strait, it's hard to envision a meaningful pull back on restrictions. If anything, I see further tightening," Daniel Newman, principal analyst at Futurum Research, told CNBC.

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China’s Ministry of Commerce accused the U.S. of weaponizing export controls and expressed “high concern” about the U.S.’s direct intervention in the high-tech exports issue by Dutch companies to China.

Why It Matters: Despite the export ban, Chinese entities, including the military, government sectors, and state-run AI institutions, have been able to procure Nvidia chips, which are currently under U.S. export restrictions. This highlights Washington’s challenges in completely cutting off China’s access to advanced U.S. chips.

China’s semiconductor industry, long under global scrutiny and trade restrictions, has been showing signs of a breakthrough, challenging the established hierarchy in the high-stakes tech race between the world’s two largest economies.

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