Russia Reportedly Gearing Up For A 'Possible' Conflict With NATO Amid Ukraine Confrontation, Warns Estonia

Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has cautioned that Russia is gearing up for a military confrontation with the West in the coming decade. It suggests that a bolstered Western military presence could deter Russia.

What Happened: The Estonian intelligence service has issued a warning about Russia’s military intentions, Reuters reported. The report, released on Tuesday, is based on Russia’s plans to double its forces along the NATO border with Finland and the Baltic States of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.

“Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation … and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so,” said Kaupo Rosin, the head of the intelligence service.

Rosin also noted that a military attack by Russia is “highly unlikely” in the short term due to its ongoing troop presence in Ukraine. However, he emphasized the importance of being prepared for such a scenario.

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Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Estonia and other Baltic States have increased their military spending to over 2% of their economies. NATO allies have also bolstered their presence in these countries.

Why It Matters: The warning from Estonia comes at a time when the perceived threat from Russia and China has reportedly diminished, with public concern shifting towards non-traditional risks. This shift in public opinion is reflected in the Munich Security Index 2024, which highlights a growing unease about non-traditional risks such as mass migration.

Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump‘s comments on NATO’s mutual defense clause have been criticized by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as “dangerous” and advantageous to Russia. Trump raised doubts about the U.S. commitment to defend NATO allies who don’t meet their defense spending targets in the event of a Russian invasion.

These developments are occurring against the backdrop of a heightening standoff between Russia and the West, with talks of asset seizures to aid Ukraine prompting retaliatory threats from Russia.

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