Biden vs. Trump: New Poll Shows One Candidate With A Slight Edge, But Pollster Says 'Both Looking Vulnerable'

President Joe Biden has a four-point lead over his predecessor, Donald Trump, in a hypothetical two-way matchup for the 2024 presidential election, new poll results published on Wednesday showed. The result contrasts a majority of other nationwide polls, which put the latter slightly ahead.

Biden’s Lead Thinning Out: Biden took away the support of 49% of the registered voters, while 45% sided with Trump, according to the results of Quinnipiac University’s February national poll.

Biden’s lead may be explained by the respondents’ party affiliations, which skewed slightly in his favor, and also the independent voters, who preferred him over Biden. Forty-four percent of independents chose him compared to 42% who said they would vote for Biden.

The poll surveyed 1,421 self-identified registered voters nationwide from Feb. 15-19, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey included 576 Republican and Republican-leaning voters and 624 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters 

Despite a plurality of voters supporting Biden, his support base has eroded from the January polls in which he led Trump by a 50%-44% margin.

When Biden was matched up against former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in a two-way race, the latter led the former by a 46%-43% margin. In a multi-candidate ballot, Biden came out on top, with 35% support compared to the 27% support Haley received.

However, the chances of a Biden-Haley clash look bleak as Trump received 80% support in the Republican primary compared to a much more modest 17% support for Haley.

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Independent Candidates Even Out Equation: Quinnipiac’s poll found that Biden’s lead nearly vanished when independent and third-party candidates were added to the ballots. Biden received 38% support, almost comparable to Trump’s 37% support.

Robert Kennedy Jr., who is contesting as an independent candidate, was favored by 15% of the respondents. Cornel West, also an independent, and Green Party’s Jill Stein received a more modest 3% support each.

Biden Vs. Trump: How They Compare On Traits: On age, physical and mental fitness, Trump held the edge, while Biden was favored on ethics, empathy and temperament, poll data showed.

“A Biden-Trump split decision on physical and emotional fitness leaves both looking vulnerable. Yes, Trump wins walking away on the age and stamina question, but voters have more confidence in Biden’s empathy toward them and his emotional stability to handle the job,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

This illustration (article image) was generated using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.

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