Zinger Key Points
- Trump now leads Biden by a smaller margin than he did in February, a new poll has found.
- The president support among his party base was less than what Trump commands among his voter base.
The race between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump — the likely contenders from either side of the aisle for the 2024 election — has become too close to call, according to new poll results released on Monday. The survey revealed surprising details that shed further light on voter sentiment.
Two-Way Matchup: In a hypothetical two-way match-up, Trump led Biden by 47% to 44%, a three-percentage-point lead, while 9% said they did not know or weren’t sure. This compares to a 48%-42% margin in favor of Trump in the February poll.
The survey was conducted online within the U.S. on March 20-21 among 2,111 registered voters by The Harris Poll, along with Harvard University and the Center for American Political Studies.
The percentage of Democrats who said they would vote for Biden was 82%, compared to the 83% support Trump had among Republicans. The incumbent, however, came out on top among independent voters by a 42%-38% margin.
When non-committed voters were urged to take sides, the tally showed 51% in favor of Trump compared to 49% for Biden. Trump’s support, however, decreased from 53% in February, while Biden’s increased from 47%.
Multi-candidate Race: When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was thrown into the fray, the relative positioning changed slightly:
| Candidate | March Poll |
| Trump | 41% |
| Biden | 37% |
| Kennedy | 15% |
| Don’t know/Unsure | 7% |
Trump’s lead over Biden in a three-way race reduced from +7% in February to +4% in March.
If other independent and third-party candidates were added to the ballot, Trump’s lead over Biden increased to five percentage points.
See Also: Trump Vs Biden: One Candidate Gains Ground In Swing States, Shakes Up Election Race
Voters Yearn For Fresh Face: Sixty-two percent of respondents said they would prefer another alternative if Trump and Biden were confirmed as nominees for their respective parties. The remaining 38% said they were content with Biden and Trump as presidential candidates. Additionally, 55% said they would consider an independent moderate candidate running for the presidency in 2024 if Trump and Biden were the nominees.
Both the Democratic and Republican parties have negative net approval ratings, although the former fared worse than the latter. Fifty-three percent disapproved of the Democratic party, while 47% approved, while 49% approved of the GOP versus 51% who disapproved.
A majority of respondents (61%) expressed disapproval of Congress’s performance amid wrangling among lawmakers about reaching a deal to avert a potential government shutdown.
Top Election Issues: Immigration was cited as the top election issue by 36% of respondents, followed by inflation/price increases (33%), economy & jobs (23%), and crime and drugs (18%).
Inflation remained the top personal issue for voters, followed by immigration. While the percentage of respondents mentioning inflation fell by 3 percentage points to 38%, the share of those mentioning immigration rose by 4 percentage points.
The influx of illegal immigrants across the southern border has strained state finances, with Republicans warning of its impact on the already precarious fiscal situation of the U.S.
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