In a recent opinion piece, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Elisabeth Braw, has suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s recent threats to station troops near the Finnish border are unlikely to materialize due to a lack of military resources.
Why It Matters: Putin’s recent saber-rattling near the Finnish border, which spans over 1,300 kilometers, has been dismissed by Braw as an empty threat. She argues that Russia’s military capacity is insufficient to back up these intimidations. This is a significant development in the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.
“That's heavy saber-rattling, considering the border is more than 1,300 kilometers long.”
Braw’s analysis, published in Politico, suggests that Russia’s military is overstretched, with troops previously stationed near the Finnish border being redeployed to Ukraine. This, she argues, is a clear indication of Russia’s inability to back up its threats.
Putin’s recent threats come in the wake of Finland’s decision to join NATO, a move that was prompted by Russia’s aggressive behavior. Braw suggests that Russia’s military is already struggling to recruit enough soldiers, resorting to tactics such as enlisting prison inmates and hiring mercenaries from the Wagner Group.
Despite Putin’s plans to expand the Russian armed forces, Braw questions the feasibility of this given the current recruitment challenges. She concludes that while Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership provides a level of security, the risk of Russian aggression remains due to the country’s unlikely ability to change in the near future.
Why It Matters: The tension on the Finland-Russia border comes amid a backdrop of Russia’s heightened sensitivity to NATO expansion. Russia warned as Finland made its intentions to join NATO clear. This move was seen as a direct response to Russian aggression, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Furthermore, the revelation of a secret residence allegedly owned by Putin near the Finland border, as reported in February 2024, adds a layer of intrigue to the geopolitical dynamics in the region. Putin may have personal as well as strategic interests in the area.
Sweden’s decision to join NATO further complicates Russia’s position, with both Finland and Sweden abandoning their long-standing neutrality in the face of Russian hostilities. The inclusion of these Nordic countries in NATO signifies a significant shift in the security landscape of Northern Europe, challenging Russia’s influence and exposing its military limitations.
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