JPMorgan's Q1 Earnings Top on High Rates, Loans & IB

High interest rates, the First Republic Bank deal, improvement in investment banking (IB) business and solid loan balance drove JPMorgan's JPM first-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings to $4.63 per share. The bottom line handily surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.18.
The results excluded a $725 million or 19 cents per share increase in the FDIC special assessment charges. After including it, earnings were $4.44 per share.
The company's shares lost almost 3% in pre-market trading despite quarterly numbers widely beating expectations.
Jamie Dimon noted "Many economic indicators continue to be favorable." But he added a word of caution on inflation. He said, "there seems to be a large number of persistent inflationary pressures, which may likely continue."
Higher interest rates, decent consumer spending and a solid loan balance (up 18% year over year) continued to support NII during the quarter, while lower deposit balances hampered. Management reiterated its NII guidance of approximately $90 billion for this year compared with $89.3 billion in 2023.
Among other positives, Commercial Banking average loan balances were up 27% year over year. Further, debit and credit card sales volume increased 9%.
Mortgage fees and related income jumped 24% to $275 million. We had projected the metric to be $251 million.
Further, as expected, the performance of the IB business improved. Equity underwriting fees jumped 51% and debt underwriting fees were up 58%. On the other hand, advisory fees declined 21%. Overall, total IB fees grew 21% from the prior-year quarter to $2 billion.
Also, the company witnessed a 2% year-over-year rise in deposit balance.
Markets revenues declined 5% to $5.8 billion. Specifically, fixed-income markets revenues were down 7% to $5.3 billion, while equity trading numbers were stable at $2.68 billion. Our estimates for equity and fixed-income markets revenues were $2.74 billion and $4.84 billion, respectively.
During the quarter, operating expenses witnessed a rise. Management expects adjusted non-interest expense to be roughly $91 billion this year. The figure includes the increase in the FDIC special assessment in the first quarter.
The performance of JPMorgan's business segments, in terms of net income generation, was decent. All segments, except for Consumer & Community Banking and Asset & Wealth Management, recorded a rise in net income on a year-over-year basis. Overall, net income rose 6% to $13.42 billion. We had projected net income to be $12.53 billion.

Revenues & Costs Rise

Net revenues, as reported, were $41.93 billion, up 9% year over year. The top line outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $40.75 billion.
NII grew 11% year over year to $23.08 billion. This was driven by higher rates, higher revolving balances in Card Services and the impact of the balance sheet mix, partially offset by lower deposit balances. Our estimate for NII was $23.97 billion.
Non-interest income grew 7% to $18.85 billion. Our estimate for non-interest income was $15.8 billion.
Non-interest expenses (on a managed basis) were $22.76 billion, increasing 13%. This upswing was due to a rise in all cost components. We had projected non-interest expenses to be $21.47 billion and didn't include the increase of the FDIC special assessment charge.

Weak Credit Quality

Provision for credit losses was $1.88 billion, down 17% from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $2.25 billion.
Net charge-offs (NCOs) jumped 72% to $1.95 billion. Also, as of Mar 31, 2024, non-performing assets (NPAs) were $8.21 billion, up 11% from the Mar 31, 2023 level.

Solid Capital Position

Tier 1 capital ratio (estimated) was 16.4% at the first quarter-end, up from 15.4% in the prior-year quarter level. Tier 1 common equity capital ratio (estimated) was 15%, up from 13.6%. Total capital ratio was 18.2% (estimated), up from 17.4%.
Book value per share was $106.81 as of Mar 31, 2024, compared with $94.34 a year ago. Tangible book value per common share was $88.43 at the end of March 2024, up from $76.69.

Share Repurchase Update

During the reported quarter, JPMorgan repurchased 15.9 million shares for $2.8 billion.

Our Viewpoint

New branch openings, strategic acquisitions, a global expansion plan, high interest rates and decent loan demand are likely to keep supporting JPMorgan's revenues. However, a potential economic slowdown, reduction in loan demand and mounting expenses are near-term concerns.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

JPMorgan Chase & Co. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | JPMorgan Chase & Co. Quote

JPMorgan currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Earnings Dates & Expectations of Other Major Banks

PNC Financial Services PNC is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2024 numbers on Apr 16.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PNC's quarterly earnings has moved 1.3% north to $3.09. This implies a 22.4% fall from the prior-year reported number.
Bank of America BAC is slated to report first-quarter 2024 numbers on Apr 16.
Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for BAC's quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 77 cents. This indicates an 18.1% decline from the prior-year quarter.

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