Used Truck Prices Plunged from February to April, J.D. Power Finds

Prices for most vehicles in April at both the retail and auction level were down only slightly from March. But they were down far more from February.

For example, midyear 2022 Class 8 tractors sold at an average retail price in April of $95,365, according to the report. That was 5.4% less than in March, a decline of $5,379.

But the drop from February was far more pronounced. The price that month for Class 8 used 2022 tractors sold at retail was $128,768. The April price reflects a decline of almost 26% in two months.

J.D. Power said it did not release figures for sales of 2022 vehicles sold at auction "due to very low volume of trucks sold, which resulted in swings in the averages that were not reflective of the market."

Model year 2021 vehicles sold at auction in April brought an average price of $50,173, J.D. Power said, which was just 0.7% higher than the March price. But the February price was $54,477, for a decline in just two months of 7.9%.

Other changes in April compared to March show a market that was mostly stable. For example, prices for model year 2020 vehicles sold at auction were 2% higher than in March, the auction price for 2019 vehicles was 1.7% lower, and the auction price for 2018 vehicles was down 10.2%.

Retail sales in April also showed a mix of ups and downs. 2021 and 2020 model year vehicles were both higher-priced than in March, 5.8% and 1.6%, respectively, while 2019 and 2018 retail prices were down from March, 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively.

But down the line, prices in April compared to February showed notable declines. At auction, Class 8 tractors from 2020 fell to $32,433 from $37,064. The decline for 2019 was to $26,749 from $31,117, and for 2018 it was to $19,301 from $24,791.

At retail, the comparison between April and February prices was $74,543 versus $77,939 for 2021 models, $55,868 versus $60,939 for 2020, and $43,524 versus $45,424 for 2019.

Some of those smaller declines would be more in line with normal depreciation, which J.D. Power this year said has been averaging 2.3% per month, in line with historical performance.

As the commentary provided by J.D. Power in the report notes, prices even after recent declines remain elevated in part because of the way they soared during the pandemic.

"Late-model sleepers are bringing money comparable to the last strong pre-pandemic period of late 2018 in nominal dollars, or about 19% less when adjusted for inflation" the report said. "Compared with the last weak pre-pandemic period, late-model sleeper values are now running 30% higher in nominal dollars or 7% higher in real dollars."

But markets are more than prices. In its commentary, J.D. Power said, "April's retail environment was unexpectedly weak, with sales per rooftop averaging a dismal 2.1 trucks."

In an email to FreightWaves, J.D. Power Senior Analyst Chris Visser said that metric — sales per rooftop — is calculated by taking the "total number of dealership rooftops (individual locations) reporting sales divided by total number of sales reported."

Visser added that the number generally averages about 5.0, "and we've been substantially below that post-pandemic."

He also noted that the number is adjusted for outliers or sales for which J.D. Power is unable to obtain "critical items" such as mileage. "Most rooftops will move quite a bit more trucks in the real world than our average shows, but our methodology has been consistent over time, so it's a valid ongoing comparison" Visser said.

As far as the April weakness, the report said that month "is not typically a weak month for

retail sales, so we could be entering the late-spring doldrums a little early."

The overall downward trend in lower prices is reflected in this chart. The numbers are an average of prices for 3-, 4- and 5-year-old used trucks with an aerodynamic body type.