Second Trump Term Could Lead To 'Confrontational Relationship' Between China, US, Says Expert: 'Likely Experience A New Round Of Large-Scale Decline'

China’s communication channels with the Biden administration could face new challenges if Donald Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election, according to a Chinese expert.

What Happened: Jia Qingguo, a professor at Peking University, warned of increased confrontations if former president Donald Trump is re-elected, South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday. Jia highlighted that the current working group mechanism under President Joe Biden has helped manage bilateral issues.

Jia noted Biden’s recent tariffs on Chinese products, including steel, aluminum, and electric vehicles, were politically motivated ahead of the November election. Trump has promised even harsher measures, including a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods and targeting Chinese cars made in Mexico.

Jia emphasized that while Biden’s tariffs had limited impact on China-U.S. trade, Trump’s policies could lead to significant uncertainties and confrontations, especially regarding the one-China policy. He cited past actions and statements from Trump’s administration and allies as indicators of potential future policies.

"If these people's ideas will have a greater impact on Trump's policies, then the relationship between China and the United States will become a very confrontational relationship, and will most likely experience a new round of large-scale decline," Jia said.

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China has condemned U.S. tariffs as discriminatory but has not retaliated immediately. Jia suggested a tacit understanding exists between the two nations to avoid escalating into a trade war. However, a Trump victory could disrupt this balance.

Jia also commented on Taiwan, predicting a “deadlock” in cross-strait relations under Taiwan’s new leader, Lai Ching-te. He mentioned that Biden’s administration has emphasized building guardrails between China and the U.S., which could limit Lai’s actions toward Taiwan’s independence.

Why It Matters: The potential re-election of Trump could have significant implications for U.S.-China relations. A war game simulation conducted earlier this year suggested that Trump’s return to the White House could spell disaster for Taipei, with Taiwan being particularly vulnerable.

Moreover, Fitch Ratings recently warned that Trump’s proposed tariff hikes on Chinese goods could severely impact U.S. economic growth. The tariffs could potentially smother economic progress, affecting various sectors.

On the other hand, a recent poll indicated a global preference for U.S. leadership over China under Biden’s presidency. This shift in global sentiment underscores the delicate balance in international relations that could be disrupted by a change in U.S. leadership.

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This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari