Top analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has shared production data for Apple Inc.’s AAPL iPhone 16 series, providing details on shipment plans for the third and fourth quarters of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.
What Happened: In a blog post shared on Monday, Kuo revealed that the 2024 shipment forecast for the iPhone 16 series has been slightly raised from 87–88 million units to 88–89 million units, primarily due to increased demand for the standard iPhone 16.
The iPhone 16 series, comprising the standard version, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max, is projected to account for approximately 26%, 6%, 30%, and 38% of iPhone 16 series shipments in 2024, respectively.
Shipments for August and September are expected to be around 9 million and 16 million units, respectively. Kuo estimates that Apple is preparing 15–17 million units for iPhone 16 pre-orders.
Meanwhile, in the third quarter of 2024 iPhone 16 series shipments are expected to grow about 10% YoY compared to the same period last year with iPhone 15 series.
However, for the fourth-quarter 2024 iPhone 16 series shipments are projected to decline by 5–7% YoY compared to the same time last year iPhone 15 series.
In the first quarter of 2025, iPhone 16 series shipments are expected to decline significantly by 53–55% QoQ, primarily due to seasonality and the potential cannibalization impact of the new iPhone SE4.
Kuo also revealed that the only iPhone EMS providers are now Foxconn and Luxshare ICT, responsible for 55–60% and 40–45% of iPhone 16 series shipments, respectively.
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Why It Matters: Before the iPhone 16 launch, experts had mixed views. Gene Munster, a tech expert, suggested that the iPhone 16 launch could be a “disappointment before the excitement,” as much of the anticipation was already factored into the stock.
However, he believed the new phone would boost the stock over the next year. “I think it's conservative to say 10% because there's a group that's just going upgrade this year because it's time. Their phone is five years old they're just gonna get a new phone.”
On the other hand, Bloomberg columnist Mark Gurman cautioned consumers not to believe the hype about an iPhone 16 super cycle, stating that the “best AI features” would require a wait.
Meanwhile, just days before the iPhone 16 launch, Huawei’s new tri-fold smartphone, the Mate XT, received over a million orders in just seven hours, potentially raining on Apple’s parade.
Image via Shutterstock
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