US Autonomous Vehicle Sales To Hit 230K By 2034 After Progress Resumes At Alphabet's Waymo, GM's Cruise: S&P Global Mobility

Automotive research firm S&P Global Mobility said on Monday that it sees potential for autonomous driving to transform the way people move as advancements resume in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology in the U.S. after a two-year-long slowdown.

What Happened: While advancements in the field of autonomous driving continued to occur from 2021 through 2023, overall progress towards deployment appeared slow, the firm said, while noting that there was also a shortage of investment into the technology.

“In 2024, though the AV industry overall still faces a lack of sufficient capital to support technology development, investment announcements have come from parent companies of AV startups,” S&P Global Mobility’s Associate Director of AutoIntelligence Stephanie Brinley wrote in a blog on Monday.

Key Players In The U.S.: Waymo is currently the frontrunner in the field of AVs in the U.S., according to S&P. In July, Waymo’s parent Alphabet GOOG GOOGL said that it would invest up to $5 billion into the unit.

General Motors‘ GM Cruise, meanwhile, has resumed supervised robotaxi operations across multiple cities after it paused operations late last year after the involvement of one of its robotaxis in a pedestrian accident.

EV giant Tesla TSLA, meanwhile, is improving its full self-driving (FSD) driver assistance software with the aim of achieving vehicle autonomy. The company is also looking to unveil a dedicated robotaxi product on Oct. 10.

“Investment and expansion in 2024 are encouraging in the US market, but challenges remain,” Brinley wrote on Monday, referring to the ongoing investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) into Waymo over unexpected driving behavior, GM abandoning plans to build the Origin autonomous vehicle, and Tesla’s delays in achieving autonomy.

AV Sales Estimates Across Geographies: S&P now expects sales of autonomous light vehicles in the U.S. to reach about 230,000 units in 2034.

In China, the firm expects AV sales to potentially touch 1.5 million units owing to faster progress on the technology.

Europe, according to S&P, will progress slower than both the U.S. and China with AV sales only touching 37,000 units in 2034.

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