iPhone 16 Pro Demand Lags, Longer Wait Times Globally, China Shows Smaller Gap: Analyst

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple Inc AAPL with a price target of $265.

The Cupertino, California-based smartphone maker announced the iPhone 16 series will be generally available beginning September 20.

Chatterjee noted that the lead times of the Apple iPhone 16 series across critical markets, including the U.S., China, Germany, and the UK, indicate in-line demand for the iPhone 15 series during the first week.

Also Read: Apple’s iPhone 16 Launch – JPMorgan Says ‘Staggered Pricing Approach’ Could Offset Rising Chip, Memory Costs

He noted that the early demand indicators for Pro models are starting modestly softer relative to the iPhone 15 series.

Delivery-at-home timing for the 16, 16 Plus, 16 Pro, and 16 Pro Max across the regions Chatterjee tracked averaged 5, 2, 14, and 21 days in week one. By comparison, delivery-at-home timing for the 15, 15Plus, 15 Pro, and 15 Pro Max across the regions he tracked averaged 2, 5, 22, and 41 days in week one a year ago.

However, the analyst said the mix continues to favor Pro models, particularly the Pro Max, with lead times already extended relative to base and Plus models.

The analyst noted that in the U.S., the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus lead times were zero days each, while the Pro and Pro Max lead times were 6 and 20 days, respectively. Relative to in-store availability, all iPhone 16, Plus, and Pro models can be picked up on Sept. 20, while most variants of the 16 Pro Max are unavailable in-store.

The trends were similar across all the regions Chatterjee tracked. That’s not including China, where the difference in lead times for Base models versus Pro models is less vast than in the other areas.

In China, the lead times for the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus were 18 and six days, respectively. The lead times for the Pro and Pro Max were 23 days each. Relative to in-store, all iPhone 16 and 16 Plus models can be picked up around the availability date. In contrast, only a select few Pro models are available for pickup, and no Pro Max models are available.

When it comes to iPhone shipments:

• The U.S. accounts for ~32%
• China for ~20%
• Germany and the UK for ~5%

Price Action: AAPL stock is down 2.69% at $216.56 at last check Monday.

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Image: Courtesy of Apple