While Vice President Kamala Harris surges ahead in polls against her Republican rival Donald Trump, she hasn’t found much traction in the business and investing world. Hedge fund manager John Paulson, the founder of New York-based investment firm Paulson & Co. said on Tuesday in a media appearance that he would pull his money off the market in the eventuality of a Harris win, while Tesla CEO Elon Musk flagged something even more ominous.
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Chalk & Cheese: The market timing and investor timing will depend on who the president is, said Paulson in an interview with conservative media outlet Fox News. Paulson is a pro-Trumper and a Republican donor, and the ex-president reciprocates the sentiment. In March, a Bloomberg report said Trump was considering the hedge fund manager for the role of Treasury Secretary.
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“If Harris was elected [I] would pull my money from the market. I’d go into cash, and I’d go into gold because I think the uncertainty regarding the plans they outlined would create a lot of uncertainty in the markets and likely lower markets,” he told Fox News.
Paulson is known for his profitable bet against the subprime mortgage in 2007.
While Trump wants to extend the 2017 tax cuts implemented during his term in office, Harris was planning to allow them to expire, he said, adding that the latter seeks to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and the capital gains tax from 20% to 28%.
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The vice president has also proposed a 25% tax on unrealized gains for people having a net worth of $100 million or more, Paulson said. If implemented it would cause “mass selling of almost everything – stocks, bonds, homes, art – I think it would result in a crash in the markets and an immediate, pretty quick recession,” he added.
Musk Chimes In: When Mario Nawfal, who hosts shows and Twitter Spaces, shared the Fox News clipping of Paulson’s interview, Musk said, “[Warren] Buffett is already preparing for this outcome.”
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Musk, who has publicly pledged allegiance to Trump after the first assassination attempt against the former president in a Pennsylvania campaign rally, apparently referred to Berkshire Hathaway, the firm led by Buffett, divesting large positions in some of its key holdings.
Berkshire sold 115 million Apple shares in the first quarter and followed up the sales of another 390 million shares in the second quarter. At the end of June, the firm still owned 400 million Apple shares despite the disposals. At Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting held in May, the investment guru said the decision to sell the firm’s biggest holding Apple was to raise cash to foot the federal tax bill and also in line with his intention to hold more cash during times of uncertainty.
The company’s cash position at the end of the June quarter was a massive $277 billion.
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The Buffet-run investment holding company has also been trimming its stake in Bank of America Corp. BAC, another of its core portfolio stocks.
The Berkshire chairman and CEO vouches for value investing – an investment strategy of betting on quality stocks that trade well below their intrinsic value. He rarely invests in techs, which qualify as growth stocks. Musk, for his part, has been sending feelers to Berkshire and Buffett via his social media posts regarding investing in his flagship electric-vehicle company.
Since Buffett is regarded as a model investor known for his risk-averse strategies, any decision to reduce his equity holdings could negatively impact sentiment toward stocks.
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