Millions of dollars are now being wagered on the upcoming U.S. presidential election after a recent court decision lifted a domestic betting ban. This has sparked a surge in interest, particularly from institutional investors.
What Happened: The market is experiencing significant activity following a court ruling in Washington. This decision allows prediction markets to offer contracts on the election, enabling bets of up to $100 million on either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. In the initial days post-ban, over $12 million was wagered, with more institutional players joining the platform, according to Kalshi Inc. founder Tarek Mansour.
The bets are structured as binary options, priced up to $1 per contract. As of Monday, contracts favoring Trump traded at 54 cents, while those for Harris were at 47 cents, reflecting a narrow gap that has fluctuated since the market opened.
The court’s decision came after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) failed to demonstrate harm to elections, despite arguing that such bets could undermine democratic integrity. The CFTC’s appeal against the ruling is ongoing.
Offshore platforms like Polymarket have also seen significant activity, with over $1.9 billion staked on the presidential race. Experts anticipate volumes to increase tenfold as election day approaches.
Why It Matters: The recent court ruling marks a pivotal moment for political betting in the United States. On Sep. 7, a federal judge authorized Americans to place bets on congressional election outcomes through prediction-market startup Kalshi, overturning a 2023 decision by the CFTC that had previously prevented such activities. This decision has opened the door for legalized wagers on U.S. elections.
Furthermore, the betting odds have shown a shift in favor of Trump, who recently set an all-time high in presidential betting odds against Harris on Polymarket. As of Oct. 10, punters on the decentralized prediction market gave Trump more than a 55% chance of regaining power, up from 49% the previous week, while Harris’ odds slipped to 44%.
Did You Know?
- Congress Is Making Huge Investments. Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool
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This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
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