Brett Winton, Chief Futurist at Ark Invest, took to X on Tuesday to explain the difference in numbers between betting markets and poll-based forecasts ahead of the November elections.
What Happened: Winton highlighted that prediction markets have often diverged from poll-based approaches, with a significant portion of these deviations favoring Democratic odds.
He expressed surprise on Tuesday over the differences between prediction markets and polls-based forecasts and noted that the deviation between platforms like Polymarket and forecasts by Nate Silver are within historical ranges.
He also pointed out that Nate Silver’s forecast was affected by unexpected events, such as a candidate switch by Democrats with Joe Biden stepping down for Kamala Harris. This, Winton said, skewed the expected convention bounce, leading to an overestimation of Trump’s odds initially, which later shifted back to Harris.
Winton concluded by stating that he anticipated a more pronounced discrepancy in the time series data.
Why It Matters: The divergence between prediction markets and poll-based forecasts is a topic of interest, especially as prediction markets like Polymarket have shown increased support for former President Donald Trump.
However, billionaire investor Mark Cuban dismissed these odds as “meaningless,” citing the influence of foreign money and questionable legality for U.S. participants.
Additionally, recent Polymarket data showed Trump having a 61.3% chance of winning the presidency compared to Harris's 38.6%, while the Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday indicated Harris is leading over Trump by a narrow margin of 46% to 43%.
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This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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