Kamala Harris To Win The Popular Vote? A $4 Million Payday For One Trader Who Thinks Trump's Chances Are Only 15%

A pseudonymous Polymarket trader by the name of ‘Redegen’ has taken a sizeable position on Vice President Kamala Harris winning the popular vote in the November election.

What Happened: Redegen stated on X that if his bet proves accurate, he could bank a profit of almost $4 million. “I think it’s a hugely EV+ bet,” he said, citing the stability of Harris’s lead and estimating Donald Trump has less than a 15% chance of overcoming it.

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Redegen also holds a bet against Donald Trump winning the election and the the popular vote. His current total position is valued at $6.4 million but currently underwater by over $250,000.

This bold stance contrasts with other interpretations of the race. Nate Silver, former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, suggested both Harris and former President Donald Trump might exceed their current poll numbers

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Why It Matters: Rising tensions around the upcoming election and varied forecasts on candidate performance make Redegen’s high-stakes bet notable. Nate Silver's model suggests a Trump sweep of swing states is the most probable, happening 24% of the time, with a Harris sweep next at 15%.

Recently, Harris received endorsements from 23 Nobel laureates, including economist Daron Acemoglu, who support her economic policies for fostering strong and equitable growth.

This wager reflects both the broader economic sentiment and strategic political forecasts heading into the election.

What’s Next: The aftermath of the election and its consequences for the digital asset industry will be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

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