Exxon Mobil Q3 Preview: Will Rising Production, Cost Cuts Boost Earnings?

Zinger Key Points
  • Exxon Mobil will release its Q3 earnings Friday morning.
  • Investors will likely focus on the company’s ongoing production growth.

As Exxon Mobil Corp XOM prepares to release its third-quarter earnings Friday morning, investors will likely focus on the company's ongoing production growth, particularly from its high-output assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana, as well as cost savings initiatives designed to boost profitability.

Despite mixed sentiment in the second quarter, the company's financial resilience and strategic cost controls have positioned it to deliver another strong quarter for production and potential earnings growth.

What To Know: In the second quarter, Exxon reported total revenues of $93.06 billion, outpacing the consensus estimate of $90.987 billion. This growth came amid rising production levels, especially within its newly acquired Pioneer Natural Resources assets, Guyana and long-standing Permian Basin operations.

Net production reached an impressive 4,358 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day, up 15% sequentially. Investors are likely to see continued momentum in the third quarter due to Exxon's enhanced focus on high-value, low-cost assets, which have not only driven production but also yielded improved cost efficiencies.

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Exxon's adjusted net profit in the second quarter was $9.24 billion, reflecting an increase from $8.22 billion in the prior quarter and surpassing analysts' expectations. With adjusted earnings per share of $2.14, above the $2.01 consensus, Exxon demonstrated its ability to outpace market expectations amid fluctuating commodity prices.

Despite the challenging macro environment, the company’s performance was enhanced by strategic investment in high-output assets and cost-control measures that help stabilize earnings potential.

For the full year, Exxon has guided for approximately $28 billion in capital expenditures, including investments in its expanded portfolio following the Pioneer acquisition.

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What Else: Another key factor influencing Exxon's third-quarter earnings potential is the company's aggressive shareholder return strategy.

Year-to-date shareholder distributions reached $16.3 billion by the second quarter, which included $8.1 billion in dividends and $8.3 billion in share repurchases. The pace of share repurchases has accelerated to a target of $20 billion annually through 2025, contingent on market conditions.

This capital return plan, combined with the sustained dividend (most recently $0.95 per share in the second quarter), underscores Exxon's commitment to returning value to its investors even as it reinvests in growth and sustainability.

For the third quarter, Exxon's capital distribution could be an additional positive driver for shareholder sentiment, as the company's financial structure remains robust enough to accommodate both high-level reinvestments and substantial shareholder returns.

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How To Buy XOM Stock

By now you're likely curious about how to participate in the market for Exxon Mobil — be it to purchase shares, or even attempt to bet against the company.

Buying shares is typically done through a brokerage account. You can find a list of possible trading platforms here. Many will allow you to buy “fractional shares,” which allows you to own portions of stock without buying an entire share. For example, some stock, like Berkshire Hathaway, can cost thousands of dollars to own just one share. However, if you only want to invest a fraction of that, brokerages will allow you to do so.

In the the case of Exxon Mobil, which is trading at $117.41 as of publishing time, $100 would buy you 0.85 shares of stock.

If you're looking to bet against a company, the process is more complex. You'll need access to an options trading platform, or a broker who will allow you to “go short” a share of stock by lending you the shares to sell. The process of shorting a stock can be found at this resource. Otherwise, if your broker allows you to trade options, you can either buy a put option, or sell a call option at a strike price above where shares are currently trading — either way it allows you to profit off of the share price decline.

XOM Price Action: According to data from Benzinga Pro, Exxon Mobil has a 52-week high of $126.34 and a 52-week low of $95.77. It is trading up 0.33% at $117.18 Thursday at publication.

Photo: Shutterstock

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