'A Crucial Ingredient For Production": What Mass Deportations Could Cost America

Donald Trump’s promised deportation campaign could trigger economic disruptions across employment, consumer prices and public finances as the incoming administration targets an estimated 10 million unauthorized workers, representing 6% of the U.S. labor force.

The workers in California, Florida, New York and Texas form critical parts of the construction, agriculture and service industries. Nearly half of America’s unauthorized immigrants reside in those four states, according to data from Pew Research Center cited by The Economist, which counted 11 million unauthorized migrants in 2022, with 8.3 million in the workforce.

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Research challenges claims that mass deportations would benefit American workers. 

A study from the University of Colorado Denver found that during the Obama administration’s deportations, removing 11 migrants led to the loss of one native-born job. The Peterson Institute for International Economics projects that deporting 1.3 million workers would cause a permanent 0.6% drop in overall employment.

“Unauthorized immigrants do not just supply labor for a fixed demand, they are a crucial ingredient for production,” Michael Clemens of George Mason University told The Economist. This becomes evident in agriculture, where labor shortages already pose challenges. During the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a federal program advertising nearly 100,000 seasonal farm jobs attracted only 337 American applicants, according to the National Council of Agricultural Employers.

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The construction industry faces particular vulnerability, with unauthorized workers comprising about one-sixth of its workforce and nearly one-third in specialized trades like drywall installation and roofing. Research from the University of Utah indicates that previous deportation efforts worsened housing shortages, as labor supply disruptions outweighed reduced demand.

Fiscal implications extend beyond immediate enforcement costs. While unauthorized immigrants cannot access most federal benefits, they contribute to public finances through sales taxes, payroll deductions and property taxes paid through rent.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that recent immigration will reduce federal deficits by $900 billion between 2024 and 2034 through increased tax revenue and economic growth.

Trump’s deportation idea draws inspiration from the controversial plan President Dwight Eisenhower initiated in the 1950s that saw 1.1 million people removed. His advisers, including deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller and border czar Tom Homan, advocate using military resources to achieve what they promise will be the largest deportation effort in American history.

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