'I Wish I Could've Predicted It': The $27 Billion Gas Deal Behind AI's Energy Appetite

America’s artificial intelligence boom is triggering an unexpected surge in natural gas power plant construction, upending clean energy forecasts and culminating in Constellation Energy’s $27 billion acquisition of gas giant Calpine.

Energy consultancy Enverus projects that 80 new gas-fired plants will be built across the United States by 2030, adding 46 gigawatts of power capacity – equivalent to Norway’s entire electrical system, according to a report issued by the Financial Times. The expansion marks a 20% increase over the past five years’ construction pace and reverses earlier predictions of declining gas capacity.

“Gas is actually growing faster now and in the medium term, than ever before,” Enverus research analyst Corianna Mah told the Financial Times.

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Major tech companies are driving the fossil fuel renaissance. Meta recently announced plans to power its $10 billion AI data center through Entergy’s $3.2 billion gas plant expansion. Once the facility comes online, the social media giant will become the utility’s largest customer.

The Department of Energy expects AI-related electricity demand from data centers to triple within three years. The surge caught even industry veterans off guard. “I wish I could’ve predicted it 18 months ago,” said Bill Newsom, CEO of turbine manufacturer Mitsubishi Power Americas, which now plans to boost production capacity by 50%.

Traditional energy companies are rushing to capitalize. ExxonMobil and Chevron are designing plants to supply AI data centers directly while utilities keep aging facilities running longer than planned. Wood Mackenzie has cut its 2035 forecast for gas plant retirements by 10%.

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The construction wave threatens the Biden administration’s climate goals, which target a 50% emissions cut by the decade’s end. According to data from energy think tank Ember cited by the Financial Times, U.S. gas plants released over one billion tons of carbon dioxide last year – their highest output on record.

While renewable energy development continues, industry leaders say current battery technology can’t match gas plants’ reliability for power-hungry AI operations. “Your ability to serve that kind of load reliably is very limited with traditional renewables,” Matt Bulpitt, Entergy’s vice president of power development, said to Financial Times.

Texas, Tennessee and South Carolina led the gas expansion. None of the planned facilities will include carbon capture systems, equipment that would become mandatory in 2032 under Biden-era rules likely to face rollback under Trump’s second term.

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