Donald Trump’s team plans to launch America’s largest deportation operation in decades, targeting at least one million undocumented immigrants in his first year back in office.
“We’ll get National Guard and we’ll go as far as I’m allowed to go, according to the laws of our country,” Trump told Time Magazine in December. “Whatever it takes to get them out.”
The Department of Homeland Security estimates that 11 million unauthorized migrants lived in America in 2022, according to data cited by The Economist. Oxford Economics puts the current number above 13 million, with most living in California, Texas, Florida and New York.
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Trump has tapped immigration hard-liners for key posts. Stephen Miller, set to become deputy chief of staff, backs rapid deportations. “As God is my witness, you are going to see millions of people rapidly removed from this country who have no right to be here,” Miller said last year.
Former Immigration and Customs Enforcement chief Tom Homan will return as border czar. While Homan backed tough measures like family separations during Trump’s first term, officials who worked with him say he understands federal limitations.
The administration faces major hurdles. Immigration courts already have a 3.7-million-case backlog, with average wait times of nearly three years. Transportation poses another challenge – only Canadians and Mexicans can be driven across borders. Other deportations require flights costing about $17,000 per hour.
The American Immigration Council estimates that removing one million people yearly would cost $88 billion – nearly triple the 2024 budgets of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection.
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Local resistance could slow efforts. Many Democratic-led cities refuse to help federal agents catch undocumented residents. Denver Mayor Mike Johnston typified the stance: “We’ll partner on [deporting] violent criminals, but what we don’t want to see is the 101st Airborne be sent into Denver to pull a seventh-grade girl out of history class.”
Trump may try forcing cooperation by threatening to cut federal funding. His team also floated using military bases as detention centers and building tent camps in Texas.
The push faces economic risks as unauthorized immigrants make up nearly 5% of America’s workforce, according to a 2020 Pew Research report. Industries like meatpacking already worry about labor shortages under tougher enforcement.
While 56% of registered voters backed mass deportations in recent polling, 58% supported letting unauthorized immigrants married to U.S. citizens stay, pointing to public ambivalence about aggressive removal tactics.
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