'There Are Many Ways To Fake A Robotaxi Service'—Former Waymo CEO Casts Doubt On Tesla's Upcoming Robotaxi Launch

Former Waymo CEO John Krafcik isn't convinced Tesla TSLA is ready to roll out its long-promised robotaxi service. In a recent interview with Germany’s Manager Magazine, Krafcik took aim at Tesla's Cybercab concept, arguing that the company lacks the necessary technology and design to operate a safe and effective autonomous taxi fleet.

‘A Serious Robotaxi Wouldn't Look Like This’

Krafcik, who led Waymo from 2015 to 2021, criticized the Cybercab's design, calling it impractical for a true robotaxi service. He pointed out that Tesla's approach lacks key features like redundant sensors, high-resolution cameras, and cleaning mechanisms for essential equipment.

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"If a company were serious about building a safe robotaxi business, the robotaxi wouldn't look anything like this prototype," Krafcik said. "A serious robotaxi would demonstrate the primacy of safety; the manufacturer would place sensors in optimal positions—on the roof, as well as on the sides and corners of the vehicle. These sensors would also have cleaning and drying functions—windshield wipers, compressed air nozzles, and so on."

He also questioned the logic of the Cybercab's low-slung coupe design, arguing that ease of access should be a priority for a public-use vehicle.

‘Many Ways To Fake A Robotaxi Service’

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has promised a robotaxi network for nearly a decade, yet no Tesla vehicle has received approval for fully driverless, paid ride-hailing services. Krafcik didn't hold back his skepticism, suggesting Tesla could use alternative methods to create the appearance of an autonomous taxi fleet.

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"There are many ways to fake a robotaxi service," he said, mentioning techniques such as teleoperation, lead-and-follow cars, and highly restricted operating areas.

Krafcik implied Tesla may ultimately fail to deliver a true robotaxi experience and simply add another missed milestone to Musk's long list of ambitious promises.

Waymo Leads The Robotaxi Race, Tesla Still Lags

While Tesla has yet to deploy a driverless taxi service, Waymo has already completed over 2 million paid robotaxi rides in cities like Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. According to investment manager Gary Black, Waymo remains the clear leader in the space, with Amazon-owned AMZN Zoox emerging as a strong challenger. Meanwhile, China's Baidu has already logged 9 million paid robotaxi rides across multiple cities, including Hong Kong.

Tesla's biggest hurdle is its lack of Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy, which prevents it from launching a fully unsupervised ride-hailing service. Even with a fleet of over 7 million vehicles worldwide, Tesla faces regulatory barriers that companies like Waymo and Zoox have already overcome.

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Public Skepticism Remains High

A 2024 J.D. Power study found that 76% of people who had ridden in a robotaxi felt good about the technology, but only 20% of those who hadn't tried one felt the same way. The study also showed that just living in a city where robotaxis operate made people more comfortable with the idea. This shows that the more people see and use robotaxis, the more they trust them.

Highway Driving

Krafcik also questioned a common idea in the self-driving car industry. Many people think driving in the city is the hardest because of traffic, pedestrians, and random obstacles. But he said highway driving might actually be even more difficult.

"Almost all of the challenging circumstances and vulnerable road users found in cities also exist on highways—only less frequently," Krafcik said. "The rarity doesn't make things easier—it makes them more difficult." He pointed to cyclists, scooters, and pedestrians occasionally appearing on highways, making high-speed autonomy more demanding in terms of perception, behavior prediction, and path planning.

Can Tesla Prove The Doubters Wrong?

Tesla plans to unveil its robotaxi service in June, but skepticism remains high. Analysts, including Goldman Sachs GS, project only limited initial revenue for Tesla's robotaxi business, estimating around $115 million by 2027. Meanwhile, investment manager Ross Gerber recently described Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology as "a 12-year-old driving" compared to Waymo's more mature system.

With competition heating up and consumer trust still shaky, Tesla has a long road ahead before proving it can deliver a fully autonomous ride-hailing service—without "faking" it.

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