Boeing Faces Key Turnaround Challenges With Tariff Risks, China Orders: Analyst

BofA Securities analyst Ronald J. Epstein reiterated the Neutral rating on Boeing Company BA on Thursday, with a price forecast of $185.

The analyst states that Boeing still faces major hurdles in its turnaround efforts.

Key among them is the need to stabilize 737 model production at 38 units per month before seeking FAA approval to increase output to 42. Additionally, Epstein remarks that the company must keep its loss-making defense programs on track to avoid further pressure on free cash flow. Another concern is the ongoing impact of the tariff war, which could mean higher costs and continued delays in orders from China.

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The analyst views Boeing's recent award of the F-47 NGAD program by the White House and Air Force as a major strategic victory, especially under the leadership of new CEO Kelly Ortberg.

The contract is seen as a critical long-term opportunity that could strengthen Boeing's position in defense for decades.

While the R&D phase of the project has now been factored into their forecasts, the analyst remains mindful of potential "execution" risks.

Reflecting this new program and added interest income, Epstein raised the earnings per share estimates across the board—boosting the 2025 forecast to $0.35 from $0.15, the 2026 estimate to $3.90 from $2.55, and the 2027 projection to $5.85 from $4.90.

The analyst has revised the free cash flow outlook for Boeing, now anticipating a lower cash usage of $3.6 billion in 2025 compared to the earlier estimate of $4.5 billion.

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