Trump's Deportation Policies Could Worsen Social Security's Funding Shortfall by 11%, Warns New Report

President Donald Trump‘s immigration policies could worsen Social Security’s existing funding shortfall by approximately 11%, according to a new report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

What Happened: The Social Security program, already projected to have funds to pay only about 83% of benefits by 2035, faces additional pressure as the administration’s mass deportation efforts target workers who contribute significantly to the system’s finances.

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Immigrants play a vital role in sustaining Social Security solvency through their payroll tax contributions. The Social Security Administration (SSA) estimates that higher-than-expected immigration, roughly 400,000 more people annually than current projections, would reduce the program’s funding gap by about 11%. Conversely, lower immigration of similar magnitude would worsen the shortfall.

“Immigrants are more likely to be of working age and have higher rates of labor force participation compared to U.S.-born individuals,” the report notes. Without immigrants and their U.S.-born children, America’s prime working-age population would have declined by over 8 million people between 2000 and 2023.

Even undocumented immigrants contribute substantially, paying an estimated $25.7 billion in Social Security taxes in 2022 despite rarely becoming eligible for benefits themselves. A 2013 SSA actuarial report found these workers provided a net positive contribution of $12 billion to the trust fund in 2010.

See Also: Many are using retirement income calculators to check if they’re on pace — here’s a breakdown on what’s behind this formula.

Why It Matters: The Trump administration, which recently reinstated “National Social Security Month” with Acting Commissioner Lee Dudek vowing to “protect Americans’ hard-earned Social Security benefits,” has simultaneously implemented staffing cuts at the SSA. Former Commissioner Martin O’Malley warned these reductions could lead to “interruption of benefits.”

Meanwhile, Congress is considering Trump’s tax proposal, which includes eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits alongside other tax cuts that could reduce federal revenue by up to $11.2 trillion over the next decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Money‑management guru Dave Ramsey has recently urged Americans to treat Social Security as a bonus, not a backbone, warning that the program’s cash crunch could slice benefits within a decade.

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