3 Big Surprises Just Hit The Markets – Here's How I'm Trading Them

In just the first few days of July, we've seen more market-shaking headlines than we usually get over the span of a full quarter. Congress officially passed President Trump's ‘Big Beautiful Bill' last week. In response, Elon Musk launched a new third political party and Trump pushed the expiration of the 90-day tariff freeze to August 1, while announcing a slew of new tariffs.

Meanwhile, gold hit three all-time highs (a triple top), oil is up around 35% from its year-to-date low of $62, and Bitcoin is inching toward new record highs after closing the week at $109,000. 

So today, I want to break down the biggest moves in the market – including a "wildcard" no one's talking about – and why they matter.

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Politics, Tariffs And A Fresh Round Of Market Volatility

President Trump signed his ‘Big Beautiful Bill' (officially called the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act") into law on Friday during a White House Independence Day celebration. It wasn't a surprise, of course – he said he wanted to do just that. What really grabbed attention, though, was the tariff twist. Remember that 90-day freeze on tariffs is set to expire this Thursday? That's been pushed back to August 1 as the administration continues to work on deals.

The markets took the news in stride, at least at first. Stocks opened higher, with tech leading the charge; bond yields dipped as traders priced in the idea that Trump might kick the can down the road again. But don't be fooled, volatility's still in the air because this delay doesn't erase the threat – it just pushes it further out.

And that's not all.

Elon Musk, who's been one of the loudest critics of Trump's budget bill, filed to launch his own political party, “America First,” in response to its passage. Add this to the mix of trade wars and political threats, and the markets are having to price in a fresh round of uncertainty. We saw that on Monday when the Dow dropped more than 300 points to start the day.

Gold's Seasonal Slide And Oil's Short-Lived Momentum

SPDR Gold Trust GLD hit all-time highs in April, May and June – a textbook triple top. Now it's started to back off a bit, sitting around 305 as I'm writing. But the trend still looks solid.

We've got a nice gap between the 50- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), so momentum's still there for now. That said, gold tends to trade lower in August. Additionally, volatility has been declining since its last peak, which suggests to me that gold may be losing momentum in a matter of weeks.

Meanwhile, nature's black gold (oil) is surging right now. We've gone from year-to-date (YTD) lows of $62 to YTD highs of around $84. That's a huge move, but there are signs that it's running out of gas. Prices have already pulled back a little, and the seasonal pattern that's been fueling this rally is about to end.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see oil completely lose steam – even roll over – by next Friday. So, if you're looking to make a move, keep in mind that the window's closing fast.

Tech's Rebound Watchlist And The Mag 7's Turning Point

The Magnificent (MAG) 7 stocks – Apple Inc. AAPL, Microsoft Corp. MSFT, Alphabet Inc. GOOG, Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, NVIDIA Corp. NVDA, Meta Platforms Inc. META and Tesla Inc. TSLA – are showing signs of a rebound.

A great example of this is the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF MAGS, which has just posted a textbook V-shaped recovery, bouncing off its April low of around $39 and climbing back toward its January high of nearly $56.50. Even better? Its chart just showed a bullish golden cross, where the 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day MA – a strong indication that momentum could be turning.

Now, MAGs are still trailing behind the S&P and Dow – it's the caboose. But if this rally keeps rolling, MAGs could catch up fast, possibly even leapfrogging them to the front of the train. And if the biggest names in tech start firing again, it's a signal the broader market could be setting up for another breakout.

Tesla's Uncertainty Factor And The Risk Beneath The Rally

The real wildcard of the markets right now? Tesla.

We've seen the stock hit YTD highs near $426 earlier this year, then tank below $221 and then bounce again. This hasn't happened once or twice – it's happened multiple times. At the moment, it's sitting around $295, but a new tweet by Musk could change that in a heartbeat.

Seasonality isn't giving us much to work with right now, either. There's no bullish or bearish edge we can lean on for July or August. Although we saw a bullish crossover recently, I'm not convinced it will hold, given the constant chaos surrounding the stock.

Volatility is low, Fibonacci levels are signaling a bearish trend, and the overall trend is sideways.

But the unknown factor here is Elon himself. His move to launch a third political party is doing more than just rattling headlines – it's stirring sentiment. Shareholders didn't sign up for this kind of drama or political spotlight. And with what seems to be bridges burned on both sides of the aisle, Tesla's getting dragged even deeper into the mess.

That kind of risk is exactly why Tesla is such a wild card in this market. If it breaks lower, it could drag the rest of the Mag 7 with it. And if it stabilizes, it might be the last piece needed for tech to start firing on all cylinders again.

Ultimately, we're looking at the perfect storm of uncertainty and opportunity right now. So, while the headlines can be distracting, remember that the charts and the patterns are where the real story is told.

Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.

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