Monday's Market Minute: Kicking Off May

It’s a busy week to begin the month of May, let’s take a market minute to get ahead of what’s headed our way. First, we begin the week with the focus on the U.S. indices, commodities, and U.S. Treasuries, and how we still have yet to see any rejection of trends that have been in place for some time now. Since the spike in rates earlier this year, the TYX to 2.5% and the TNX to 1.75%, they’ve eased off some and ultimately are not as much of a concern for market participants; this has created an environment supportive of existing risk-on tendencies. Better-than-expected economic data has also supported the risk-on tendencies, and this week we have ISM and PMI data to keep an eye on, but the focus will be mostly on the jobs reports.

This week we have the ADP, Challenger Job Cut report, weekly Jobless Claims, and we cap things off with Non-farm Payrolls Friday. In terms of companies reporting quarterly results we have Lyft LYFT, Uber UBER, Moderna MRNA, Under Armour UA, and Peloton PTON to keep an eye on. We also have a handful of Fed speakers, and after recent comments from Robert Kaplan about it being time to start to taper asset purchases, there could be a fair amount of attention on Williams, Bostic, Evans, and Rosengren all set to speak this week.

Lastly, we have the U.S. Dollar to keep an eye on; after a failed attempt to auction back to the 94 handle it sold off. We currently have a well-defined upper and lower extreme to keep an eye on in the Dollar: 93.50 to the 89 low from the beginning of the year. I mention the U.S. Dollar because it oftentimes is at the epicenter of many of the moves we see in commodities, and because they’ve been more closely tied to rates in the recent past, that correlation is also something to watch this week.

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