Thursday's Market Minute: Crude Oil Can't Crack Resistance

It was an interesting summer for crude oil traders as futures contracts transitioned from a slow grind up into a series of dramatic plunges that have turned into a downtrend. The /CL contract was down as much as 16% during the month of August, only to rebound and wind up about 2.5% higher since the beginning of June.

However, price has been unable to crack the previous highs from the beginning of the month near 69.50. This level also roughly coincides with both the 50-day Simple Moving Average and the lower line of the Linear Regression 50% channel, so it could be a significant resistance level to monitor going forward. Oil is now within the narrow range between the 21-EMA below and the 63-EMA above, both of which have been moving sideways for the past two weeks, so watch for any significant move beyond these levels for trend clues. If the downtrend continues, buyers may be willing to step in near the confluence of the yearly Volume Profile Point of Control (price level with the heaviest trading volume) and the lows from Jul. 20 & Aug. 9 around 65.25.

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