Thursday's Market Minute: S&P 500 Reeling As Russia Invades Ukraine

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Markets are plunging on news of Russia invading Ukraine, but S&P 500 Futures were already getting pummeled during this shortened trading week and were down about 12% off their all-time highs as of yesterday’s close. 

There’s a litany of recent technical information to assess in light of this pronounced downward move. One of the most important developments is that the /ES broke through a double-bottom support level connecting the lows of Jan. 24 and Jul. 19 near 4,210, which is further evidence that the equity index is transitioning into a downtrend. After holding the 252-Day Exponential Moving Average near 4,310 yesterday, the /ES finally failed to hang on to its last major moving average that remained to the downside. This was the line in the sand that held during the last downswing in late January, but yesterday’s large candle that closed near the lows showed little signs of bulls stepping in to buy the dip. The 252-EMA now becomes a point of resistance to watch going forward.

Other bearish developments include price closing below the yearly -2 Standard Deviation Channel as well as the lower Bollinger Band, both of which are typically regarded as ways to gauge extreme price activity. Price also gave up the yearly Volume Profile Point of Control, which is the level with the heaviest trading, near 4,346. Other developments include a bearish MACD crossover this week, a bearish PSAR crossover last week, and an RSI reading only fractionally above the oversold area. Given the bleak technical picture, it’s not unreasonable to watch the -3 Standard Deviation Channel for potential support near the 3,970 level.

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