Rivian Q4 Earnings Preview: EV Market Jitters, R2 Debut Looms

Electric vehicle company Rivian Automotive Inc RIVN reports fourth-quarter financial results after market close on Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024.

Here's a look at the key earnings estimates, what analysts are saying and key items for investors to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Rivian to report fourth-quarter revenue of $1.262 billion according to data from Benzinga Pro. The revenue would be up significantly from last year's fourth-quarter total of $663.0 million.

The company reported revenue of $1.337 billion in the most recent third quarter. Rivian has beaten analysts' estimates for revenue in three straight quarters and four out of the last six quarters.

Analysts expect Rivian to report a loss of $1.32 per share in the fourth quarter, which would be an improvement on a loss of $1.73 per share in the year-ago period. Rivian has beaten earnings per share estimates in seven straight quarters.

The company reported fourth-quarter production and delivery figures earlier this year. Rivian produced 17,541 vehicles in the fourth quarter and delivered 13,972 vehicles in the quarter.

For fiscal 2023, Rivian produced 57,232 vehicles and had 50,122 vehicles delivered.

Related Link: Rivian Stock Upshifts On Strong Q3 Earnings: EPS Beat, Revenue Beat, Increased Production Guidance And More

What Analysts Are Saying: Several analysts have lowered their price targets and ratings for Rivian heading into the fourth-quarter earnings print.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy recently downgraded shares from Overweight to Equal-Weight and lowered the price target from $25 to $16.

The analyst cited the weakness of the overall electric vehicle sector in the downgrade.

"It appears that even great product and tech is not enough to avoid the EV winter," Levy said.

The analyst also said Rivian's backlog might not be as strong as it once was to help move delivery volume higher.

"The consequences of weak demand are significant. Not only does it mean that the volume outlook is challenged, but it also presents potential pricing risk — with both points reinforcing RIVN is likely to miss its 2024 target of reaching gross margin profitability."

Here's a look at other analyst ratings on Rivian in January:

Goldman Sachs: Neutral rating, lowered price target from $20 to $17

Needham: Buy rating, lowered price target from $25 to $22

Deutsche Bank: Downgrades from Buy to Hold, lowered price target from $29 to $19

Wolfe Research: Downgrades from Outperform to Peer Perform, no price target

Key Items to Watch: Investors and analysts hope to get an update from Rivian on 2024 production and deliveries. The company raised its full-year guidance for 2023 during its third-quarter report.

The company also announced it would open up its delivery vehicles for orders outside of a large deal from investor and partner Amazon.com Inc AMZN.

Rivian announced a deal with AT&T for delivery vehicles that will begin production in 2024.

An update on delivery vehicles and backlog could be a key item to watch with the company previously saying it would hit 100,000 deliveries.

Rivian will unveil the R2 on March 7. Investors and analysts await more details on the midsize SUV expected to have a lower price point of $45,000 to $50,000 compared to a starting price of more than $70,000 for existing Rivian truck and SUVs.

The R2 is expected to begin production in 2026 and be available in the U.S. and Canada initially. Rivian announced the vehicle would also be available for reservations in Europe at a later date.

RIVN Price Action: Rivian shares trade at $15.91 versus a 52-week trading range of $11.68 to $28.06. Shares of Rivian are down 24% over the last year.

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