Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider NextEra Energy?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. NextEra Energy NEE earns a #3 (Hold) two days from its next quarterly earnings release on July 24, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.94 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.94 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.93 Zacks Consensus Estimate, NextEra Energy has an Earnings ESP of +1.44%. Investors should also know that NEE is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs.
NEE is just one of a large group of Utilities stocks with a positive ESP figure. BCE BCE is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
BCE, which is readying to report earnings on August 1, 2024, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.59 a share, and BCE is 10 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BCE is $0.59, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.28%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, NEE and BCE could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
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