Vail Resorts Reports Q4 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates

Vail Resorts MTN came out with a quarterly loss of $4.67 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $4.28. This compares to loss of $3.35 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -9.11%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this ski resort operator would post earnings of $9.94 per share when it actually produced earnings of $9.54, delivering a surprise of -4.02%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has not been able to surpass consensus EPS estimates.

Vail Resorts, which belongs to the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry, posted revenues of $265.39 million for the quarter ended July 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.14%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $269.77 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Vail Resorts shares have lost about 14.4% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 20%.

What's Next for Vail Resorts?

While Vail Resorts has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Vail Resorts: mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$4.82 on $258.79 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $8.33 on $3.02 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Leisure and Recreation Services is currently in the top 29% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Royal Caribbean RCL, another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2024.

This cruise operator is expected to post quarterly earnings of $5.02 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +30.4%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.1% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.

Royal Caribbean's revenues are expected to be $4.84 billion, up 16.3% from the year-ago quarter.

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