Alcoa Q1 Earnings Preview: Investors Want To Know If Tariffs Will Hurt —Or Help — Stock

Aluminum producer Alcoa Corp AA could highlight the upcoming impact of tariffs from President Donald Trump when the company reports first-quarter financial results Wednesday after market close.

Here are the analyst estimates and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Alcoa to report first-quarter revenue of $3.53 billion, up from $2.60 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Alcoa beat analyst estimates for revenue in the fourth quarter and has beaten estimates in five of the past 10 quarters.

Analysts expect Alcoa to report first-quarter earnings per share of $1.70, up from a loss of 81 cents per share in last year's first quarter.

Alcoa has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in three straight quarters and six of the past 10 quarters overall.

Read Also: Steel & Aluminum Import Tariff Threat: 4 ETFs Gaining & Losing In The Market Shake-Up

Key Items to Watch: Alcoa's guidance for 2025 calls for Alumina segment production to decline on a year-over-year basis and aluminum production to increase on a year-over-year basis.

The company's operations in 2025 could be impacted by pending tariffs placed on other countries by Trump.

While many metal stocks like Alcoa traded higher when Trump announced proposed tariffs on aluminum imports, the company's CEO cautioned the result could be negative.

Alcoa CEO Bill Oplinger said tariffs on aluminum imports could lead to the loss of U.S. jobs. Oplinger said Alcoa would seek exemptions on aluminum produced in several countries, as reported by Reuters.

Alcoa produces aluminum and other metals in several countries outside the U.S. and has closed plants in America in recent years. The tariffs could be done to get companies like Alcoa to reopen American plants, a move that Oplinger said wouldn't be feasible. The company relies on cheap electricity in regions like Canada and Iceland.

Oplinger will likely comment or be asked about the impact of tariffs and whether this is being priced into fiscal guidance going forward. The CEO's comments will be closely watched by the sector Wednesday.

Several analysts have cut their price targets on Alcoa ahead of the quarterly results. Here are some of the latest analyst ratings on Alcoa.

• UBS: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $47 to $32
• JPMorgan: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $40 to $28
• Bank of America: Downgraded from Buy to Underperform, lowered price target from $58 to $26

AA Price Action: Alcoa stock is down 1% to $24.75 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $21.53 to $47.77. Alcoa stock is down 34.6% year-to-date in 2025 and down 32.0% over the past year, recently hitting 52-week lows this month.

Read Next:

• Trump’s 25% Tariffs On Steel And Aluminum Imports Take Effect, EU Retaliates: US Steel, Nucor, Century Aluminum And Other Domestic Stocks Cheer