EV journalist and independent Tesla Inc. TSLA analyst Troy Teslike has released his first-quarter estimates ahead of the automaker's earnings announcement on Tuesday.
What Happened: On Monday, Troy Teslike unveiled his first-quarter projections for Tesla, offering a broadly mixed outlook on the company’s performance, relative to Wall Street expectations.
Teslike, who reports a self-verified error rate of just 1.4% on Tesla’s production and 3.0% on deliveries, expects the EV maker to post $19.21 billion in first-quarter revenue, a 10% year-over-year drop, 25% decline from the previous quarter, and below the $20 billion consensus estimate.
The sharpest decline is projected in Tesla's core automotive sales and leasing segment, with revenue estimated at $13.40 billion, down 30% from the fourth quarter of 2024 and 21% year-over-year. Regulatory credit revenue is forecast at $564 million, marking an 18% sequential decline but a 27% increase from last year. Service revenue, by contrast, is down just 2% year-over-year.
Tesla's energy generation and storage division is expected to be a bright spot, with projected sales of $3.02 billion, up 84% year-over-year. However, even this falls short of consensus estimates, according to Teslike’s forecasts.
Teslike's projections, however, outpace Wall Street on margins, with gross profit estimated at $3.45 billion versus the Street's $3.18 billion. He also expects gross margins at 17.9%, ahead of the 15.9% consensus, while attributing this to the absence of “0% Financing” offers for the Model Y in the U.S. in Q1.
There are a few other variations in his forecast, but Teslike ultimately lands on an earnings per share estimate of $0.38. matching analyst expectations, but marking a sharp 48% drop from the previous quarter, and a 16% decline year-over-year.
Why It Matters: The prolific Tesla analyst has been bearish on the company’s near-term prospects since January, predicting that deliveries in 2025 will be flat, countering even Elon Musk’s claims of a 20% to 30% growth.
In February, Teslike doubled down on his outlook, warning that the situation had deteriorated further. He said it was unlikely Tesla would reach 500,000 deliveries in any quarter of 2025, and even 450,000 could be a stretch, citing weakening brand sentiment as a key factor.
Tesla has been grappling with political backlash tied to Musk's affiliation with President Donald Trump. With protests dubbed “Tesla Takedown” gaining steam in recent months, there was a surge in Tesla models being dumped in used car markets, often at significantly lower prices.
There are, however, analysts who remain bullish on the stock, despite the headwinds facing the company and the larger auto market. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Adam Jonas said last month that the current pullback is an opportunity to buy “the embodied AI compounder,” while maintaining a Price Target of $430, or a 90% upside from current levels.
Jonas cites the company’s plays, such as robotics and AI, as having far more appeal than its legacy EV business or its autonomous cars. “It is increasingly clear to us that the commercial opportunity of non-auto expressions of embodied AI is likely far larger and faster-adopting than that of autonomous cars,” he wrote, reported by Yahoo Finance.
Ahead of its earnings, Tesla scores remarkably well on Momentum, Growth, and Quality in Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings. Want more insights on the company, its peers, and competitors? Sign up to Benzinga Edge now!
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