Chewy Posts Q3 Sales Beat: Analysts Say Successful Cyber Week Could Lead To Higher Lifetime Value Customers

Zinger Key Points
  • Chewy reports Q3 active customer net adds of ~160,000.
  • This could accelerate to 650,000 in 2025.

Chewy Inc CHWY shares were down Thursday after the company reported downbeat third-quarter sales.

The company reported its results amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

RBC Capital Markets On Chewy

Analyst Steven Shemesh maintained an Outperform rating while raising the price target from $39 to $42.

Chewy's active customer count grew sequentially for the second consecutive quarter, with net adds of around 160,000, Shemesh said in a note. Autoship rose to a new record, reaching 80% of net sales in the quarter, he added.

The company's fourth-quarter guidance implies slightly softer-than-expected margins, but this is mainly due to management's decision to "opportunistically step-up ad spend to grow active customers," the analyst stated. "We walk away from the quarter with higher conviction in a top-line recovery and the margin outlook largely unchanged," he further wrote.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

JPMorgan On Chewy

Analyst Doug Anmuth reiterated an Overweight rating while lifting the price target from $37 to $38.

Chewy delivered better active customer growth and achieved a "meaningful profitability ramp" in the third quarter, Anmuth said. This was driven by the company's product enhancements and solid execution, as well as "improving industry trends," he added.

"Given strong momentum, favorable recent returns and a rational competitive environment, CHWY expects to lean into marketing to drive 4Q Active Customer growth," the analyst wrote. He projected active customer net adds of over 200,000 in the fourth quarter, which could take the full year to 277,000 while projecting the figure to accelerate to 650,000 in 2025.

Needham On Chewy

Analyst Bernie McTernan maintained a Hold rating on the stock.

Chewy's overall results were "solid, with encouraging topline trends including a supportive macro environment/competitive intensity," McTernan wrote in a note. These trends appear to have continued into the fourth quarter, with the company witnessing "successful Cyber Week sales," he added.

The Cyber Week sales included "greater penetration of consumables and pushing customers to order within the app, both of which should lead to a higher LTV (lifetime value) customer," the analyst wrote. The company is likely to make top-of-the-funnel investments, which could drive "modest revenue growth acceleration throughout ’25E," he further wrote.

CHWY Price Action: Shares of Chewy had declined by 5.44% to $31.65 at the time of publication on Thursday.

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