CSX Shares Slide As Q4 Revenues Fall Short, Impact From 'Operational Issues' Notes Analyst

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CSX Corp CSX tanked in early trading on Friday, after the company reported disappointing fourth-quarter revenues.

The company reported its quarterly results amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

BMO Capital Markets On CSX

Analyst Fadi Chamoun reiterated an Outperform rating while reducing the price target from $40 to $38.

CSX reported fourth-quarter revenues of around $3.54 billion, down 3.8% year-on-year "despite 1% higher volume, robust pricing in the merchandise segment and stable pricing in intermodal," Chamoun said in a note. The company's results were affected by "lower fuel revenues, unfavorable mix, lower coal commodity prices, and the impact of hurricanes," he added.

Although CSX's adjusted earnings of 42 cents per share came in-line with expectations, it included a tax benefit of $26 million, or 1.5 cents per share, the analyst stated. "Pressures from several transitory items are higher than anticipated and weigh on the near-term outlook," he further wrote.

RBC Capital Markets On CSX

Analyst Walter Spracklin maintained a Sector Perform rating while cutting the price target from $34 to $33.

CSX's reports were broadly in-line with expectations, but were impacted by several "operational issues," Spracklin said.

Management warned of a significant year-on-year decline in operating income due to a number of "discreet costs that will hit the company," which include "lower export coal benchmarks, fuel prices, and cycling of favorable fuel surcharge lag, in addition to costs related to major construction projects on the Howard Street Tunnel and Blue Ridge Subdivision," the analyst stated. He lowered the earnings estimate for 2025 from $1.95 per share to $1.86 per share.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Raymond James On CSX

Analyst Patrick Tyler Brown reaffirmed an Outperform rating while reducing the price target from $38 to $37.

CSX reported its adjusted earnings at 42 cents per share, representing a 7% year-on-year decline, while missing the revenue expectations, Brown said. The company's full-year earnings were impacted by higher costs, he added.

"While 2024 was fraught with headwinds for CSX, unfortunately it appears that 2025 will be another year with serious hurdles outside management's control," the analyst wrote. The company's ONECSX initiatives could drive stronger revenues, margins, free cash flows and earnings "in out years," he further stated.

Stephens On CSX

Analyst Daniel Imbro maintained an Overweight rating and price target of $38.

While some downward revision in estimates was expected due to headwinds in the first half of 2025, management commentary "suggests numbers need to come down further than expected," Imbro said. The headwinds may be transitory, and the company's performance is likely to improve in the back half of 2025 and into 2026, he added.

"Additionally, channel checks remain positive on CSX's service performance, which we expect to drive share gains over time (particularly after the Howard Street tunnel is completed)," the analyst wrote.

Stifel On CSX

Analyst Benjamin Nolan reiterated a Buy rating and price target of $37.

CSX is gearing up for several challenges in the first half of 2025, Nolan said. The company projected an unfavorable impact of $300 million from lower export coal benchmark pricing and fuel prices and $10 million per month of operating income loss from construction projects on the Howard Street Tunnel and Blue Ridge Subdivision, he added.

The company's three-year targets of CAGRs (compounded annual growth rates), of 4%-6% in revenue, 4%-9% in operating income, and 7%-13% in earnings, are based on commodity prices remaining stable for both coal and fuel, the analyst stated. "While headwinds will be largely isolated to the first half of the year, recovery will take time to materialize," he further wrote.

CSX Price Action: Shares of CSX had declined by 2.88% to $32.70 at the time of publication on Friday.

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