CrowdStrike Posts Solid Q4 But Guidance Disappoints, Outage 'Mostly In Rearview Mirror': Analysts

Shares of CrowdStrike Holdings Inc CRWD tanked in early trading on Wednesday, despite the company reporting upbeat fourth-quarter results.

Here are some key analyst takeaways.

Raymond James analyst Adam Tindle maintained an Outperform rating, while raising the price target from $360 to $390.
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives reiterated an Outperform, while lifting the price target from $390 to $395.
DA Davidson analyst Rudy Kessinger reaffirmed a Buy rating, while raising the price target from $395 to $415.
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Eric Heath maintained an Overweight rating, while cutting the price target from $480 to $450.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Jonathan Ruykhaver reiterated an Overweight rating and price target of $440.
WestPark Capital analyst Casey Ryan reaffirmed a Hold rating on the stock.
Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci maintained a Neutral rating.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Raymond James: CrowdStrike's ARR (annual recurring revenues) rose 23% year-on-year to $4.242 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, beating consensus of $4.210 billion, with Flex total account value accelerating to $2.5 billion, from $1.3 billion in the previous quarter, Tindle said in a note. He added, however, that net new ARR (NNARR) declined 20% year-on-year to $224 million.

The company's initial guidance suggests "a continued acceleration through the year.” But it remains to be seen whether discount program renewals bring in new paid subscriptions, the analyst stated. Prior to the incident, CrowdStrike's NRR was closer to 120%. A return to this level would provide a baseline to “continue elite growth," he further wrote.

Wedbush: CrowdStrike reported total revenues of $1.059 billion, ahead of the guidance of Street's expectations of $1.030 billion, Ives said. Revenues crossed $1 billion for the first time. Also, the company became "the first ISV to surpass $1 billion in deal value on AWS Marketplace," he added.

The company's non-GAAP EPS guidance for FY26 came in meaningfully below Street expectations, mainly due to a tax rate impact, the analyst stated. "Overall, this quarter reaffirms our positive long-term view of CrowdStrike, as CRWD remains the gold standard for cybersecurity with the outage mostly in the rearview and NNARR growth expected to reaccelerate," he further wrote.

DA Davidson: CrowdStrike provided its fiscal fourth-quarter results above expectations across the board, Kessinger said. Earnings came in at $1.03 per share, beating consensus of 86 cents per share. Subscription revenues up 27% year-on-year and 31% sequentially.

The earnings guidance for the fiscal first quarter stood at 65 cents per share, missing the consensus of 96 cents per share, the analyst stated. "Incremental sales compensation related to CCP deals signed in Q4 will weigh on Op Profit while the company is now using a 22.5% tax rate for Non-GAAP Net Income going forward, which is negatively impacting FQ1 EPS guidance by ~$0.19," he further wrote.

KeyBanc Capital Markets: CrowdStrike delivered a "solid quarter,” Heath said. Sequential growth in NNARR was almost as strong as last year. The company is terminating the CCP offers, with the July outage being several quarters behind it, he added.

While the fiscal 2026 revenue guidance was above expectations, the company's margin outlook was lower "due to investments in platform resiliency, AI efficiencies, S&M costs stemming from CCPs, and increased marketing costs," the analyst wrote. Although the company did not provide ARR guidance for the year, it expects NNARR to reaccelerate in the back half of fiscal 2026 and acceleration further in fiscal 2027, he further stated.

Cantor Fitzgerald: CrowdStrike reported a gross retention rate of 97% and a dollar-based net retention rate of 112% for the fourth quarter. This reflects “platform stickiness” and strong brand loyalty, Ruykhaver said. This was also the "largest renewal quarter," indicating that the outage-related headwinds are behind the company.

The Falcon Flex offering continues to boost platform adoption. CrowdStrike closed $1 billion worth of total account flex deal value in Q4. This brought total deal value to $2.5 billion, up from $1.3 billion sequentially. Both SIEM and Identity Security generated healthy ARR growth, he further wrote.

WestPark Capital: CrowdStrike reported revenues of $1.06 billion and earnings of $1.03 per share. It beat consensus estimates of $1.03 billion and 86 cents per share, respectively, Ryan said. He added, however, that an area of concern was that existing or renewed ARR was sequentially flat.

"CrowdStrike has done an excellent job managing customers and expectations after the major security incident faced by the company earlier in calendar 2024," the analyst wrote. The expectation of higher spending in the first half of fiscal 2026 "create some uncertainties,” he added.

Guggenheim Securities: When considering New ARR on a two-year stack, growth accelerated to 8% in the fiscal fourth quarter from a decline of 1% in the previous quarter. While CrowdStrike reported operating cash flows and free cash flows better than consensus, they represented a 15% year-on-year decline, DiFucci said.

"Management also guided FY26 total revenue guidance at $4,774.5M at the midpoint (21% y/y) in line with Street expectations," the analyst wrote. To meet this midpoint, new ARR would need to grow approximately 15% year-on-year in fiscal 2026. It declined 7% in fiscal 2025, he further stated.

Price Action: Shares of CrowdStrike Holdings had declined by 8.63% to $356.50 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

Read More: