"Canadian home prices in June were up 1.7% from the previous month, according to the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index. This rise took the index to a new high of 144.27 (June 2005 = 100). It was the third consecutive monthly increase exceeding 1% and the largest rise since August 2009. It was also the seventh consecutive monthly increase, coming after three straight monthly declines. As in April and May, prices were up in all six of the metropolitan markets surveyed. What is new is that in all six markets the June monthly rise was at least 1%, a first since April 2005. It was 2.0% in Toronto, 1.7% in Vancouver and Ottawa, 1.6% in Calgary, 1.1% in Montreal and 1.0% in Halifax."
MP: The chart above shows how the Canadian home price index compares to the 20-city Case-Shiller Composite Index for the U.S., when both indexes are adjusted to equal 100 in January 2000. From 2000 to 2005, home prices in the U.S. doubled (+100%), while Canadian home prices increased by only 50%. Since then, U.S. home prices have fallen by 30% and Canadian home prices increased by another 40%. Compared to January 2000, U.S. home prices have appreciated by 41% and Canadian home prices are up by 112%.
Q1: Are Canadian home prices in an unsustainable bubble headed for a future major correction or crash? Or are the home price increases in Canada sustainable?
Q2: Could the U.S. have avoided a housing bubble and crash, with a lower but more sustainable rate of home price appreciation in the 2000s, similar to Canadian home prices, if we had not had the massive government interventions in the housing and mortgage markets?
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